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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Scott who wrote (6712)	9/25/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Jay, As a bond trader I usually change my opinion on rates about twice an hour :) At the moment I am looking for some signals from the market re long term rates. A week ago my view had been that the bond market was factoring to much of an ease and an actual ease would result in a sell off of treasuries, buy the rumour sell the news. This would have produced the more normal yield curve you refer to. Now, however, given the hammering the banks are taking and increased expectations of a more protracted slowdown in the US, I am beginning to suspect that any sell off on a Fed easing will be short lived and the market will eventually start looking for further rate cuts. But remember I can change my view and positions quickly. Hell, I changed my view of and position in German mid-curves twice while writing this post ;) Henry