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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15537)	9/25/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail	Respond to of 17305

Here's an interesting item on valuations, particularly in light of an expected interest rate cut by the FED: Re: Market Valuation It is interesting to note that the FED model now shows the S&P 500 as undervalued. This model assumes that the forecast operating earnings on the S&P 500 for the next 12 months, divided by the S&P 500 index (the earnings yield) should be equal to the yield on the 10 yr. treasury bonds. As of Wednesday, the model shows the S&P 500 as 4.8% undervalued. A decline in interest rates and a further selloff in the market will dramatically increase the undervaluation. The last time the S&P was undervalued was Aug. 1996. Source: Deutsche Bank Securities. See their web site: yardeni.com

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15537)	9/25/1998 10:47:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--Well, I may have screwed up but I picked up a big chunk of ANAD based on the oversold prospect for this stock. After reading the press release and seeing it down over 30%, I had to take the gamble. The $1 million shortfall over 20 million shares is $0.05/share. At a 22 P/E, that should reflect a $1.10 delta in price. stock was selling at 52 week low and is now much lower. The $8 million write off is a one shot deal and should not have accounted for the other $2.25 drop in price. I am not trying to entice anyone into this stock. Rather, I am telegraphing another play that I beleive is similar to some herd mentality of the past. Andrew

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15537)	9/25/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: Grashopper	Respond to of 17305

i DIDNT HAVE YOUr FEW GOOD HITS TO even the score so i am in doo doo land sadder but wiser. Biggest divehit was alyd where the thread has blind faithful and i was one of them until i used my head and not my heart. Now i am out of favor with a bunch of great guys in utter denial. IMO, i think alyd going where iaic/ptus went. The most impt thing you said in recent posts was the welcoming of contrary views and acknowledging your own boo boos. The day we eliminate contrary views is the beginning of the end for not only stock swap but all si. As it is we have enough shills . I welcome Kachina's view of y2k and well as your recent pessimism and frankly give it more credence then my rah rah friend TM wwho is objective on most stocks but has on the alyd blinders. If you have the timr recent posts on alyd by KG4(who the faithful villified) made a lot of sense. Only thing worse then losing is to keep losing.