To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9 ) 9/25/1998 2:43:00 PM From: Steve Fancy Respond to of 3891
Profit Warnings Cause Europeans To Switch Investment Focus By Angela Macdonald-Smith and Robb M. Stewart LONDON (Dow Jones)--Woes in Asia and other developing markets will continue to bowl over some of Europe's highest-profile stocks, but investors should be ready to grab what's left standing. That's the advice fund managers are giving out to clients, who have been spooked by a daunting run of profit warnings in recent days as companies react to steadily shrinking markets. Evidence is mounting that further warnings will be issued in the coming months, but fund managers like Rory Powe, head of the European equities team at Invesco, are already switching into stocks that could emerge from the current turmoil as winners. "The world has changed over the last 12 months, and one's stock selection has had to change with that," Powe said. European bourses have chalked up some steep losses over the last week after brewing group Bass PLC (BAS), telecoms-equipment maker Alcatel SA (ALA), music publisher EMI PLC (U.EMI), energy major Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Cos. (RPETY) and Philips Electronics NV (PHG) all issued cautious trading statements. The latest to ring the warning bell was chemicals Scapa Group PLC (U.SCP), which said Tuesday that weak demand in Asia and softness in other markets had cut five-month pretax profit by about 15% from the year-earlier period. Most experts anticipate further warnings on profits and margins from companies in the same industries as the likes of Bass, Alcatel and Shell. Analysts also are cautious about semiconductors, steel and chemicals. Many market-watchers are looking for U.K. food and drinks group Diageo PLC (DEO) to have encountered some troubles through its exposure to Latin America, although Colin Davies, analyst at Goldman Sachs in London, argued that the group's share price has already "overly" factored in any potential damage. Companies across Continental Europe, until recently thought by some to be isolated from the global fallout, may also be among those bowled over. "In the U.K., the market has plumbed valuation lows not seen for a very long time," said Nick Stevenson, analyst at Paribas in London. "Elsewhere in Europe, you've still got a 'Goldilocks' scenario that very likely isn't going to be fulfilled." He added that profit warnings are striking hardest in sectors where the climate has been the most positive for the longest. That's why the warnings from technology companies such as Alcatel and Philips hit markets so hard, Stevenson said. "But I think it's most unlikely we'll get such warnings from the retail and consumer domestic stocks in Europe," he added. "That would mean a whole new ball game." Investors have been justifiably rattled by the global economic woes, but some experts say analysts shouldn't have been surprised themselves by the profit warnings. "Analysts working for brokerages ... are too often failing to understand what is happening in the global market and therefore have (earnings forecasts), guided by the companies, that may be unrealistic," Invesco's Powe said. But Powe conceded that Invesco also has had to learn its lesson and adapt its strategy. The asset manager had already pulled out of shares of U.K. manufacturers, who have long suffered under the dual weight of sterling's strength and the Asian financial crisis, and have favored telecommunications operators over telecoms-equipment suppliers. But Powe said Invesco has had to scale back its overweight stance on financial holdings and accept that even formation-technology and service-sector stocks will suffer in the bearish market. "There will be companies that are hit," he said. "But there is an opportunity to make good money in one or two years." Powe said a number of buying opportunities have opened up, although investors will have to be patient. He cited a range of companies, such as Dutch postal and express-delivery concern TNT Post Group NV (TP) and Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB (S.HEM), that have positioned themselves to gain market share and so will recover much more quickly than other stocks. "Investment must be in sectors where there is visible and secure growth and where companies can gain market share and prosper," Powe said. The stocks that experts agree should be avoided are those of companies which have deluded themselves into thinking that restructuring plans are enough to save margins in a situation where prices are sure to fall. "Despite the best will in the world, mergers, restructuring and the pursuit of shareholder value are only going to narrow the margin decline, rather than turn margins around," Paribas' Stevenson said.