To: Cheryl Galt who wrote (25782 ) 9/26/1998 10:17:00 AM From: Henry Niman Respond to of 32384
Another Barron's article suggests the market may be at a bottom (here's the beginning): September 28, 1998 The Yo-Yo Effect An indicator signals that stocks just could be ready to climb By Richard W. Arms Jr. What a crazy market! The Dow drops 512 points on August 31, only to chalk up a record advance of 380 a week later! In fact, on many days recently, the moves have been extraordinarily large. Swings between highs and lows of 300 points have become commonplace. Moreover, the volume numbers have been equally as startling. On September 1, for example, 1.2 billion shares were traded. And during August, the average daily volume jumped to over 723 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange alone. Now, in September, the average daily volume is running at over 800 million shares. But are these point swings and volume levels really extraordinary, and do they tell us anything about what to expect? In truth, the moves aren't unprecedented, but they do impart a great deal of information and, for a change, it should gladden the bulls. The numbers seem to be saying that the market is very oversold, and is ready for an impressive upward move. The indicator I'm examining here -- the relationship of price spread to volume -- is rather simple, but telling. It's certainly not as well-known as my Arms, or short-term trading, index, carried each week in Barron's statistics section. Looking at the width of the market swings, and how much volume is needed to produce them, paints a very accurate picture of investor sentiment. The very wide recent variations in daily trading probably reflect a highly emotional undercurrent. Investors are confused, and in their confusion they try to follow each market swing. A sudden upsurge convinces them that they're missing the boat, and they rush to buy. A rally that fizzles triggers equally emotional selling. The result is, of course, a widening of the spread -- the difference between the day's high and low. In the process, investors and traders generate a great deal of volume as they vacillate from wild bull to wild bear. The calculation, used to produce the accompanying chart, indicates how many shares of trading it takes to push the Dow through each point of spread. Historically, at market tops, a great deal of volume is needed to generate a wide price spread, while at market bottoms, very little volume is required to do so. The yo-yo spins fastest at the bottom. Perhaps fear is a more powerful emotion than greed. At tops, there is complacency and a feeling of security, so that emotional responses are muted. At bottoms, the market is in emotional turmoil, and prices swing widely. At that point, it takes very little volume, comparatively, to bring about big price moves.