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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (14102)	9/25/1998 8:09:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

<<What is on your long list Bill?>> I've been buying a lot of Costco (COST) between 48 and 54. I am holding my INTC, but I've sold off my CPQ (nothing against CPQ - just looking for greener pastures). I've been buying a little AXP and FTR. I'll also take some small positions in regional banks. I bought some VC at 3 as a speculative turnaround play. I am still eyeing the big moneycenter banks. It's just coming down to which ones I want to buy. <<Greenspan is lowering interest rate in a non-favourable economic climate, causing deflation. I don't have to explain to you how stocks in this environment will behave>> I don't think deflation is or will be a big issue in the U.S. economy. If there was severe deflation combined with rapid declines in income, then I would be concerened. However, there is still counterbalancing inflationary pressure from the labor market which continues to tighten and wages continue to rise. If you look at the bigger picture, the sun is still shining, people are still going to work, and corporate America has not gone out of business. <<Be smart..stay short>> I am still short ALTIF, GBUR, HEPH, DTLN, ZONA. ALTIF (despite all the frustration with squeezes and manipulation) is a dead lock because it is a complete scam - time and patience will prove this true. HEPH - same thing. GBUR has pathetic management, a limited niche market, and will probably not see a profitable quarter anytime soon. I'm betting DTLN will not be bought and there is a whiff of fraudulent stock promotion. ZONA is a dead lock because from their own published results and conclusive scientific evidence that oral phentolamine is neither safe or effective for ED, Vasomax is certain to be rejected by the FDA. In other words, my only short positions are those where I have 100% or damn near 100% certainty of management corruption, fraud, or severe economic distress. I am not initiating any new short positions because a lot of speculative froth has been vented out of the market through the financial sector collapse, the small cap bear market, and to a lesser extent - the big correction in consumer brands (KO, Gillete, etc.) I am betting that we are putting in a significant bottom here. IMO, it would be foolish to go net short at this point in time. The market is going higher.