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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (7873)	9/25/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: Bwe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34811

Will do, Judy. I'll write an analysis over the weekend. Just did a writeup on Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and I repost it here for those who might be interested: CCl has had tough going of late. At $29, the stock has moved into a bearish High Pole Top (HPT) pattern, that, with the overall p&f market indicators in a bullish mode, suggests near term weakness where it's possible the stock could retreat to the Bullish Support Line (BSL), which is at $27. The stock put in a big top in july at $44 with a HPT, however, the market was Bear Confirmed at the time and the stock eventually moved to as low as $26 off that HPT. HPT's are brutal in Bear Confirmed markets. I believe the BSL at $27 is the floor for the stock. The next p&f sell for CCL would be at $25. I don't think the stock is going to buckle under and give a sell signal. CCL is still on a double top buy signal from a move to $31 in September, and now has completed the column necessary to complete a vertical count. The bullish price objective is $47. Two problems persist for the stock. On a broader scale, CCl's industry group, Leisure, is still in Bear Confirmed status at 10% on it's Bullish % chart. This simply means that only 10% of the stocks in that group are on p&f buy signals and have bullish chart patterns. A reversal of 6% from this level, to 16%, is needed to place the group in Bull Alert status. Lot's of groups have already reversed up providing fertile ground from which to choose stocks. Carnival's industry group is currently not one of them. When the group reverses up, the prospects for stocks in the group will have improved considerably. On CCL's chart, the stock's main nemesis, the Bearish Resistance Line (BRL), provides a heavy duty obstacle impeding upside stock price appreciation. This downtrend line was drawn in at the July, $42 high. It turned the stock back recently at $33 and the stock needs to break through this resistance line to change the main trend which has been bearish since July. The current reading on the Leisure Bullish % is 14.20%, so the group is not far from turning to Bull Alert status. Take care, Bruce

To: Judy who wrote (7873)	9/26/1998 5:45:00 AM
From: Al Serrao	Respond to of 34811

Judy, I hope you got back into RMBS. Looks like more news coming. We'll have to see if it brakes to recent new highs. Best regards.

To: Judy who wrote (7873)	9/26/1998 7:35:00 AM
From: Bwe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34811

Good morning, Judy. QCOM p&f analysis.... QCOM provides an interesting example of the difference in severity of the aftereffects of a High Pole Top (HPT) when the NYSEBP is in bullish or bearish modes. In February '98, the NYSEBP was in Bull Confirmed status and QCOM had the first of it's 4 HPT's that have occurred this year at $53. The stock bottomed out twice at $47 but since the market backdrop remained favorable, the stock was able to recover to $60 by April. QCOM had another HPT at $56 in April, and the stock retreated to familiar territory, falling back to previous buying support at $47 by the end of June. The stock gave a Low buy signal at $51 in June and this favorable shift to demand propelled the stock to $67. This was the highest price the stock had visited since 12/97 at $70. Dating back to February '97, QCOM had previously topped out at the following prices before eventually retreating: $63 (2/97), $62 (3/97), $62, $60 (4/97), $65 (9/97), $68 (10/97), $71 3 times in 11/97. The HPT that occurred at $60 in August was deadly for the stock as it occurred with the NYSEBP in Bear Confirmed status and, not surprisingly, had the severest consequences. QCOM hit a low of $41 in September and since then, the stock looks like it is making a series of higher bottoms and has given 2 double top buy signals at $49 and $50. Wouldn't you know it though, the stock has moved into another HPT at $48, it's 4th this year. With the NYSEBP in Bull alert status, the severity of the decline will likely be mitigated by the secondary trend lines. There's a Bearish Support line at $42, and another at $39. The next p&f sell will be at $44 and the HPT suggests this is likely. I believe the bottoms made at at $41 and $42 in September will be able to hold and that will be the extent of the damage. The stock previously bottomed out at $42 in April '97 so there's previous buying support at that price level. The stock has had bearish RS for quite some time now and is trading below it's BRL which is at $54. This is why taking that second buy signal at $50 was a dangerous proposition because the BRL loomed large a few $'s away. I would like to see the stock break it's BRL to turn more optimistic about the stock. A Bullish Resistance line at $55 also could limit upside movement. When the stock broke it's BSL at $53 in August with a second double bottom sell, that would've been a good time to sell the stock if you were holding. What are your thoughts on the stock, Judy? Bruce