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Strategies & Market Trends : Position Trading Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (2274)	9/25/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 7247

well i'm sure everyone will thank you for your opinion but i do believe the people are buying their stocks based on their own choices and not buy what i like. you seem to have a problem with the way i post my "opinions" of stocks on SI but i'm quite sure we are all adults here and can handle our own investments just fine. i don't tell anyone to buy a stock and if they like or dislike my picks that's just fine. regarding MER, what do you think the stock is headed to the 30's, 20's or teens?? get real this is not your fly by night company here and they will rebound. i know oct.1 is coming up and the thought of asnd is wearing on your mind but try not to take it out on me.

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (2274)	9/25/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: Nazbuster	Respond to of 7247

MER's chart today looked mighty anemic. Mighty... I know Tim will kick me, but I tend to agree with you. The chart is sick with little signs of life yet. Believe me, I ignored all the signs in stuff I'm still holding: PAIR, UTI, CREAF, etc. when I had a chance to salvage some funds. From purely a TA point of view, here's what I see: Cumulative money flow is WAY down below 200 average. Money flowing out in droves. It almost rebounded to zero recently two times, but both times went back to outflow. On-Balance Volume in downtrend. MACD is very negative, although it just turned up. Stochastics are very oversold, but not showing much sign of crossing above 20% line. (They can stay "oversold" for a LONG time.) It is still in a strong down-trend. 10-day average Minus Directional Movement is still showing downtrend. Until the stock shows daily upward moves with growing volume, money flowing INTO the stock, and MACD above zero line, it is still downtrending. I would short the rallies if they have no volume or just wait for signs of life to go long. MER has a PE under 10; Lehman under 6, though read the following for both: Friday September 25, 8:13 pm Eastern Time S&P lowers credit rating outlook on U.S. brokerages By Reshma Kapadia NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's, a major U.S. credit rating agency, revised its debt outlook on Friday for some of the nation's largest brokerages, citing recent market volatility and the bailout of a prominent hedge fund. On Thursday, U.S. brokerage and bank stocks fell sharply as investors digested a $3.5 billion package 15 securities firms and banks dispersed to rescue hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP of Greenwich, Conn. Their stocks had already been battered as firms issued earnings warnings due to their exposure to countries gripped by economic crises. One investment adviser said that the S&P decision would likely weigh down banking and brokerage stocks. ''These stocks have already been clobbered, but this is news the market has to deal with. The stocks will likely open weak,'' said Gary Anderson of Anderson & Loe, which advises money managers. ''People have already been nervous about the brokerages' debt exposure situation. This will not be met with too kindly by investors.'' S&P said late Friday that it affirmed its ratings on four major securities firms -- Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MER - news), Goldman Sachs Group L.P., Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. (NYSE:BSC - news),and Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette Inc. (NYSE:DLJ - news) but revised the outlook on these firms to negative from stable. <<Note: Now THERE's a rating you'd like to see on your securities/bonds!>> At the same time, the credit rating agency placed its long- and short-term ratings of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LEH - news) on CreditWatch with negative implications. Standard & Poor's also affirmed its ratings on Deutsche Bank AG (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: DBKG.F), whose outlook is negative. The agency said in a statement that the outlook revisions and the CreditWatch placement for Lehman reflect its concern over volatile market conditions and were not being taken as a direct result of the decision of these firms, in cooperation with the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions, to support Long-Term Capital Management. Instead, the revision was attributed to the potential for continued low trading volumes and illiquidity in important trading markets. However, the agency said it believed the rescue effort was indicative of the severity of the current market environment currently affecting capital markets-oriented financial institutions. It added that neither the remaining exposure to the fund nor the burden of supporting it would would affect the credit ratings of any of the firms involved in the rescue effort. Lehman Brothers said in a statement that it was disappointed with the agency's decision to put the firm's debt ratings on CreditWatch, noting that earlier its long-term debt ratings was reaffirmed by Moody's. ''S&P said these (changes) did not reflect our balance sheet exposures or risk management capabilities business,'' said Bill Ahern, a spokesman for Lehman Brothers. ''The decision does not suggest ''a big, dark cloud hanging overhead, but rather is a feature of our business." One analyst downplayed the rating changes, saying that much of it was already priced into the market. ''We have seen a number of these companies already come out have some sort of losses,'' said Eric Rothman, senior banking analyst at Stephens Co. in Arkansas. ''This (move) would fall in line with expectations. These are minor adjustments. The debt ratings did not go from AA to B-. It is just an adjustment and S&P is being very cautious as they should be.'' Lehman Brothers closed Friday unchanged at $33.38; Bear Stearns closed the day at $32.13, up 6 cents; Merrill Lynch closed Friday at $52.38, down $1.625; DLJ closed at $28.75, down 31 cents on the day.