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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (24639)	9/26/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM-All, Another shoe about to drop, let's be careful out there!! Looks like my European scenario is developing, not good!! From CBS MarketWatch: Hedge-fund fallout European banks tumble into abyss By Suzanne Miller, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 11:59 AM ET Sep 25, 1998 LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Europe's banks are tumbling into the abyss Friday as confidence in the sector worldwide crumbles and systemic credit risk fears swamp trading rooms everywhere. Stock markets, not just banks, have been deeply shaken by the early-Thursday bailout of Long-Term Capital Management -- the massive U.S. hedge fund that some had sworn was too big and too smart to fail. The FTSE banking index plunged 253 to 5890.8 Friday, pulling the rest of the British stock market down with it. U.K. banks account for a full 18 percent of the FTSE All Share Index. The blue-chip FTSE-100 Index dropped 47 to 5167, or 0.9 percent in late-session trading. Investors apparently are taking little comfort from the rescue mission staged by a clutch of banks, including Wall Street's heavy hitters, aimed at rescuing the markets from systemic fallout. The question on most minds at the moment is -- who's next? And how much will the banks with exposure to LTCM suffer? In no mood to play guessing games, the market is taking banks just about everywhere hostage. UBS AG of Switzerland, Europe's biggest bank, is hung up high on the casualty list. Nasty surprise Late Thursday, at a hastily arranged press conference in Switzerland, the bank said it was writing off 950 million Swiss francs from its exposure to Long-Term Capital and taking a hit of as much as a 1 billion Swiss francs in third-quarter charges because of heavy losses on its equity and emerging markets business. The news is seen as particularly galling for Warburg Dillon Read, the UBS investment banking subsidiary, because excluding the Long-Term blow, revenue there had been running at 90 percent of budget. While investors weren't entirely surprised to learn that UBS had exposure, they were shocked to learn the extent of it. On Thursday -- its announcement came out after the market closed -- the shares fell 10 percent. On Friday, they lost another 11 percent of their value -- down 39 Swiss francs at 326. The extent of UBS' exposure has turned the finger of fear and suspicion indiscriminately at every other financial group out there. The Financial Services Authority, Britain's banking watchdog, has asked all 55 of the nation's financial giants to disclose their hedge-fund exposure. Skeletons in the closet Barclays Bank (BARC-LS) (BCS), is the only British bank believed to be taking part in the Long-Term Capital bailout, but it's far from clear what exposure U.K. financials have to other hedge funds. Barclays shares lost 6.7 percent in recent trading. Blood spilled in Germany too, where Deutsche Bank's stock fell 6.5 percent while Dresdner shares dropped 7.3 percent. In some cases things were even worse in France, where Paribas' shares were suspended twice as they fell more than 15 percent. "There are concerns that there are still some skeletons in the closet," said Mark Kehoe, a Credit Suisse First Boston analyst. "We don't know what [European bank] exposure is yet." At this point, there's no sign the worst is over for banking stocks, either. "We have no buyers right now," Kehoe said. "The valuation criterion has changed and the demand for risk premium has increased -- especially with the cycle we're entering," he added. Suzanne Miller is London bureau chief for CBS MarketWatch.

To: Gottfried who wrote (24639)	9/26/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Thanks for the AMAT data. Now, I will be comparing it with our other data. Isn't it odd that on eyeballing the prices that on the odd years that AMAT moved up. Does this look good for the 1999 and the first part for 2000? IMO, yes, I know we have the world crisis but when the world recovers the stock may already be up. It also reinforces what Lester E. has said, (paraphased) "All I know is the stock moves up every two year, splits and I have twice as many shares than what I had." Any reactions to Gottfried, price, BTB, Order charts? Paul V.