To: matt fahy who wrote (22317 ) 9/27/1998 8:32:00 PM From: joe Respond to of 45548
Matt, >>Was JC answering both questions Yes or one of them, can you tell? And if he thinks there were flippers from takeover chatter, did flippers expect to get announcement on earnings day, because the rumours are still out there?<< Here's my take on interpreting what Cramer has to say. 1) Interesting that even he is stumped by the behaviour of this stock. I take it as an admission of how hard it is to figure out COMS action on a day to day basis. 2) He figures that due to the INTC rumors, a lot of people got on board for a quick ride, just before the earnings announcement. Remember, 1/2 hour before close, there was some bailing out. But most of it happened the next day. IMO, I underestimated the number of traders and flippers (whatever you want to call them). They were involved not just because of INTC rumors, but because COMS had gone up a lot since it was down around 23 a few weeks before, relative momentum was strong, and it was apparent that earnings would be good. IMO, I underestimated the number of momentum people on board. But I still believe the value people are interested, they will just wait to buy on dips. 3) About INTC rumors, he doesn't say anything. He lets the tape tell him what's going on. He won't assume something, unless he's sure of it. And nobody is 100% sure of INTC buyout of COMS. Plus, Herb Greenberg, who he has a lot of respect for, strongly implied something was up with INTC, so Cramer will not categorically deny a takeover. One thing that's important, is that the price of COMS went up a lot again on Friday. *AND*, again we had INTC rumors. If they are not true and somebody is playing with investor's emotions, we can possibly expect that COMS price will oscillate a couple of points every few days. This would allow the "smart money" more opportunities to get in - buying on dips. This would be better for them than if COMS shot up straight to 38 or so. This may be possible if the FED raises rates strongly, but then COMS would be valued at a higher price - low 40's IMO. Anyway, if you're looking to get in or trade, I suspect we will see COMS going up and down (one tip will be if we hear INTC rumors, which I think are planted), but overall making steady progress to 38. Also, next month, preannouncement month is over, so who knows how much things ramp up if there is good news in the market to focus on in combination with rate increases. JMO as usual. joe