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Barron's "Trust the Computer" article 9/28/98 *MUST READ*
Phil wrote "Analysts continue to join the bet on AAPL's Q4 results, which could boost another spike on AAPL's price if they raise AAPL's Q4 net by upgrading the stock."
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I couldn't agree more! Here are some excerpts from the Barron's article:
<In late July, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was skidding from its record high, Mark Minervini shot off a memo to his institutional clients, telling them to sell virtually all their equities and put their money in cash. The rest is history. Over the next three weeks, the Dow plunged. In August, when the gyrating average was staging a comeback, Wall Street was euphoric. But Minervini denounced the uptick as a "suckers' rally." In a TV interview August 28, he said the market that day had shown similarities to the market on the Friday before the 1987 Black Monday crash when the Dow plummeted 508 points. Sure enough, on Monday, August 31, the index plunged 512 points. It certainly wasn't a Black Monday since, in percentage terms, the drop was just a pale shadow of the plunge of a decade ago. But it certainly wasn't a good Monday.>
<Ironically, Minervini doesn't consider himself a market-timer, but rather a stockpicker. At age 33, he is president of West Haven, Connecticut-based Quantech Research Group, a five-person firm he founded five years ago that puts out daily picks for professional investment clients, such as mutual funds, brokers and hedge funds. ("Definitely not!" he replies when asked if Long-Term Capital Management, the Connecticut hedge fund that needed a $3.5 billion bailout last week, was among his customers.)>
<According to Money Manager Verified Ratings -- a firm that runs investment contests -- Minervini's personal portfolio gained 155% in1997, best of some 100-odd money managers in the $200,000-to-$999,999 division. Moreover, Minervini claims his personal portfolio has gained 9,500% (compounded) since 1994, admittedly in a raging bull market.>
<In mid-1995, he picked AccuStaff, an office-temp outfit, which subsequently rose 638% by mid-1996, when Minervini sold it. Another office-temp company, PMT Services, rose 402% in 14 months. In December 1997, he recommended Earthlink. By the time he sold six months later, the stock had risen 211%. In May 1997, when the market was just beginning to come out of a correction, Quantech tagged Tekelec, a telecom switching company "one of the first stocks to start moving up." It gained 194% in six months.>
<Minervini was still bearish on the market until the middle of last week, when he did an about-face and turned raging bull. "Even if the market as a whole has not bottomed out yet, we see some key leading stocks that I believe have already bottomed," he explains.>
<In the past few days, he's become "fully invested," recommending, among other stocks: Network Appliance (computer memory), Macrovision (security technology), Apple Computer ("Steve Jobs is back"), Dendrite International (sales-force solutions company), Broadcom (electronics and semiconducters), Yahoo! and TSI International Software, Biogen, Cox Communications, Abercrombie & Fitch and Legato Systems.>
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Source: <http://interactive.wsj.com/archive/retrieve@1.cgi?dasadowski/text/barrons/data/SB906778615861305500.djm/&NVP=&template=barrons-news-search.tmpl&form=barrons-news-search.html&dbname=barrons/index&words=trust+the+computer&any-all=AND&maxitems=30&HI=3> |
