To: lorne who wrote (19832 ) 9/27/1998 8:09:00 AM From: Alex Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116812
World Economic Crisis Puts Euro Under a Cloud stability pact in doubt EUROPEAN leaders cast a cloud over the impending launch of the euro yesterday when they admitted for the first time that their own economies would be directly hit by the global financial crisis. At a meeting of EU finance ministers and central bank governors in Vienna - the last such session before the euro comes in on January 1 - they slashed growth forecasts both for the EU as a whole and the 11-nation euro area, as fears of a serious European downturn took hold. The first shock came from Italy, regarded as the least economically stable of the 11 euro nations, when it announced that it had adjusted its economic growth rates for this year down from 2.5 per cent to 1.8 per cent. Then Wim Duisenberg, president of the European Central Bank, announced that growth in the EU would be 2.5 per cent in 1999 - rather than the 3.0 per cent forecast by the European Commission in March. For the 11 euro nations, Duisenberg said it would be "around three per cent", not 3.2 per cent as previously predicted. The sudden admission that events in Russia and Asia could trigger a serious downturn in Europe, at the very time its leaders had been hoping for growth and stability, will not affect the euro's launch. Plans are too far advanced for delay to be contemplated. But the grim outlook creates a real risk that some countries - particularly the many which only passed the Mastricht Treaty's economic entry tests by the skin of their teeth - will fail to keep their deficits under the three per cent of GDP limit in the first years of EMU. This would lessen those countries' room for manoeuvre in terms of spending, in the event of future economic shocks, and would place errant nations in line for massive fines under the terms of the "stability pact" - the German-inspired system designed to deter euroland members from overspending. As the gloomy outlook sunk in, finance ministers and bank governors failed to find much common ground over how to reform the international financial system to allow a more effective response to world crises in future. Top German ministers and bankers rejected calls from Britain and France for a radical overhaul of the International Monetary Fund, whose managing director, Michel Camdessus, attended yesterday's meeting. Germany's Economics Minister Guenther Rexrodt said: "We don't need new institutions and we need to keep flexible relations between currencies." Hans Tietmeyer, president of the Bundesbank also dismissed Mr Blair's plan. "We don't need a new architecture or new organisations, we need new accents in policy," he said, after Britain last week set a one-year deadline for reform of the IMF and World Bank. There was also friction between future members of the single currency over who should represent the euro on the world stage in meetings such as those of the G7 and the IMF. While France and Germany insisted that they - plus Italy - should do the job as they are currently members of the G7, the eight smaller countries that will adopt the single currency reacted furiously, insisting that their interests also needed to be represented. The London Telegraph, September 27, 1998