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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LarryD who wrote (5067)	9/26/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78476

re SCRA: Well, we all worry about something or other. The high debt doesn't bother me. It's not out of line with comparables (shipping, container, high-cap.intensive co's.) Nor am I concerned about the upscale hotels being empty in the alleged soon-to-be seen recession or depression. I don't like the cyclical nature of the container business, the possibility that China can control container prices by controlling manufacturing (the supply) of these things. Another negative IMO is that SCRA hovercraft operations and English railroad operations are dependent on securing contracts with government agencies, and are also dependent IMO on people's use (or non use) of the Chunnel. Finally, I don't like that SCRA makes profit forecasts that they don't meet; then fails IMO to adequately explain why they didn't meet them and why they think stockholders should believe the next forecast they put out. That being said, SCRA year-over-year earnings have increased substantially recently (They predicted a double although they didn't make it). And they are forecasting very good (IMO) earnings growth again this year. The dividend should offer some downside protection (but that doesn't seem to be happening now!). I've followed the stock a little, on and off for maybe 10-15 years. My last go 'round started with purchases in the teens, and I've not made any sales in past few years (so I'm living through the drop from 44 to about 24 now.) I attribute the current SCRA stock decline to the general decline we are seeing in the USA and also the decline I am seeing in other English companies in which I have positions (such as BAB and BOX). (SCRA is not 'officially' based in England, but it's pretty British to me -g-.) I intend to add again to my position in SCRA next week if I can get some at 24 or better level. FWIW. Paul Senior