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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (6753)	9/26/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Lawrence, I do not take internet bets anymore. The last one I took was supposed to be paid to my preferred charity, it never got paid. Furthermore, I do not have a "problem" (you might), thus your "diagnostic might be a little "misplaced". As for the specifics of my thinking, I outlined the reasons why the FED may not lower the rates, one of the reasons is that the markets have already done that for the FED's thus there is really no rush on their part. It would be more productive is you addressed these faulty thinkings rather then statistically relying on "Wall Street's economists" (VBG. After all these are the same guys that gave us LTCM.(VVBG). Zeev

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (6753)	9/28/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Zeev, L.K., I'd never bet on what may or may not happen tomorrow, but I have my hunches.... Message 5830537 Note: Because the Fed Funds contract is already showing the partial pricing in of a .5% rate cut in addition to the fully-priced in .25% cut, we should all agree that if the Fed eases tomorrow, and by only .25%, the markets will surely have a moderate sell off due to disappointment by the .5% boosters. On the other hand, a .5% cut should send it up significantly, and lastly, no change in rates would obviously be a short term stake through the heart of this shaky market. A long strangle or ratio call spread on a couple of bellweather blue chips seems irressistable here.