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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (39127)	9/26/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

Mike, I am not sure what INTC has in mind if the rumor is even true...but INTC has gone on record of being paranoid and looking at any change in business as if it was a problem.<g> Now what we do know is that the obsolete memory such as EDO and 16mb SDRAM is not an issue with INTC and is in oversupply whereas 64mb SDRAM which provides the PC's with 64mbyte and larger systems is not a problem for the PC66 machines. Where the real issue seems to be surfacing and as of yet I do not believe is a serious problem is with the PC100 64mb SDRAM. The prices seem to be stable... to showing a slight increase, which might indicate that the reduced fabs and one week in the month closings by the asians is having an affect on balancing the capacity to demand ratio. Now for the next year this will be the only memory required as the last of the PC66 systems gets phased out this year. Compaq and others have been keeping them alive to satisfy the low end customers with the 300 and 333 MII Cyrix chips and the 300 and up AMD K6 chips. Next year should be primarily PC100 only as AMD's K6II chips are the mainstream along with INTC's PII's. Take note that DELL only uses INTC chips and pretty much only PC100 buses now. My opinion: where DELL goes so goes the market. INTC may see the writing on the wall with the Memory Co's tightening up. When RAMBUS is in demand for the latter part of 1999 even less manufacturers will exist for 500MHZ bus systems b/c of the dollars required for fab and testing. Given that and the fact that MU is not supporting RDRAM but rather its own version of the widebandwidth memory spells potential problems for INTC's highend systems. They are already feeling the pinch from CYRX and AMD who are already making more powerful chips then the PII, while remaining in the Socket 7 design. Nowif their future designs work well with the SLDRAM (which is a less expensive design).... what use to be over 90% market for INTC and is now 85% could reduce to a much lower %. So what better strategy is there for INTC then to kick in a measley $1 billion or so, to MU, to give the RDRAM a little more effort(think of it as a bribe)...and then this will force the others to spend precious cash if they want to stay in the game. It could possibly be a real windfall for MU b/c that gives them an edge with RDRAM and a disadvantage to the others who don't have the cash or credit to stay in. If INTC doesn't do something they may risk more than a $billion in lost revenues to AMD and CYRX. Just a wild guess.. DavidG