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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (29036)	9/26/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bobby there are some many posts on this thread that sometimes I just hit them sporadically Now it seems I remember you were wildly bullish just days ago...(Beebs sent me a link to that post..that is why I remember it) so what has changed now for you to change your mind.. and anybody heard from David Plonk since we closed over 1047 on SPX

To: bobby beara who wrote (29036)	9/26/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

<<<Haim, MEGA KAHUNA WATCH!>> Not until October 1, IMHO BWDIK Haim

To: bobby beara who wrote (29036)	9/26/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

bobby how bout a little Dow Theory here to livin things up. :-) "According to Dow Theory, the market averages exhibit three movements: Primary Trends Secondary Reactions Daily Fluctuations The primary trends are the movements which comprise secular bull and bear markets. In bull markets, primary trends follow three distinct phases: First Phase: reviving confidence Second Phase: response to improved earnings Third Phase: speculation In bear markets, primary trends follow their own distinct phases: First Phase: abandonment of inflated expectations Second Phase: response to decreased earnings Third Phase: distress selling to raise cash Secondary reactions are those temporary movements that move against the primary trend. They usually last three weeks to three months and retrace between 33% to 66% of the previous movement since the last reaction. They work to separate the phases of primary trends. This is not to say you will have only two such reactions. The bull market from August 1986 to April 1899 had three secondary reactions. The bull market from August 1923 to September 1929 had ten secondary reactions. The present-day bull market has had secondary reactions in July 1996, December 1996, April 1997 and August-October 1997. As for daily fluctuations, nothing substantial can be taken from their study. Rhea wrote that market manipulation is possible in day-to-day movements, like quarter-end window dressing or triple-witch expiration days. He also wrote that secondary reactions can be influenced by manipulation (like the widely-suspected market tampering of the Federal Reserve on October 20, 1987). However, the primary trend can never be manipulated." Think we have seen phase 1 and 2 with a little of the quarter end stuff in process now. Phase 3 should be a dandy. Monty

To: bobby beara who wrote (29036)	9/26/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

BB, now that is my kind of post! I was beginning to think that you were throwing in the towel on the whole 1929 scenario! Your post is what I have been thinking all along...especially the wave counts, 1 and now finishing 2.... tc >We are possibly just completing the backside rally, like 1929, in >which a failed buy signal came in and many players started getting >very bullish in the new era issues. >One of my wave counts shows a completed wave on September 1st and we >are now in the final stages of the wave 2 mega rally. >In 1929, the next wave down was 230% of the first wave down on a >closing basis. That would put us at 4200 on a closing basis by the >end of October, before the first rally and then a retest with a >lower low.