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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCoolG who wrote (11310)	9/27/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Respond to of 13594

G, <<... this stock should be good for at last 3-4 more years, >> I agree. Maybe more. AOL's ease of use for the technically illiterate is a big draw. People also make "friends" in AOL's chat rooms whom they don't want to lose. Nor, as you point out, do they want to lose their e-mail address. I have a friend who continues subscribing to AOL for just that reason, e-mail address, but does most of his web surfing at work. Also the introduction of wider bandwidth delivery systems, whether DSL or cable modems, will initially only have a mild impact. Still, every now and then I like to take a big step back and try to get the overall picture. For example, in 10 years, what will Microsoft be doing for a living? Probably some version of what they do now, providing software for whatever kind of boxes are being manufactured. On the other hand, say, disk drive manufacturers, may be out of business. Anyway, you get the idea. I have a hard time picturing AOL in 10 years, though the market has already discounted a decade's worth of growth into the stock price. There are too many technological cross currents that can relegate AOL out of its lead position. But short-to-intermediate term, we agree. We're both positive on the stock, even if it has left fundamentals far behind. As the only brand name ISP, an Internet stock that actually makes money (forget how little compared to market cap) and a favorite on Wall Street both as a momentum play and as a stock that's easy to sell to individuals and institutions, AOL seems to me to have a nice near-term future. In addition, from a TA point of view, AOL has resumed its uptrend. Best, --Steve