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Technology Stocks : Germany : elections, EuroDollar, Y2k -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (13)	9/27/1998 7:17:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 44

PM Discussion: Ken / John on international aspects of Y2k 'To: Ken Salaets (who wrote...) From: John Mansfield Saturday, Sep 26 1998 5:10PM ET Ken, What do you think of the following argumentation: - IT personnel are key to solving the Y2k problem; they are increasingly short in demand; - Lowering visa requirements, increasing wages etc. well attracts foreign IT personnel to other countries that have a more attractive bid; - This might even pose a barrier to cooperation between nations on Y2k; as the interest of one nation (e.g. the US) is not served by informing other nations (e.g. Latin American) on Y2k issues. This might (partly) explain the lack of public political pressure by US/UK/Canada on lagging nations, e.g. France and Germany. John ________________ ________ 'John, the U.S. economy is so intertwined with our trading partners, I cannot imagine that the U.S. would withhold information from other countries. Indeed, the Feds are aggressively reaching out to other governments, particularly in the third world. A number of my member companies are assisting in the effort. Having said that, there's also little doubt that the market forces will have some influence over where key personnel practice their trades. We're all in this together, and while the problem will no doubt have a greater impact in some countries, all will be affected. IMHO. Ken _____________- John: << John, the U.S. economy is so intertwined with our trading partners, I cannot imagine that the U.S. would withhold information from other countries. Indeed, the Feds are aggressively reaching out to other governments, particularly in the third world. A number of my member companies are assisting in the effort. Having said that, there's also little doubt that the market forces will have some influence over where key personnel practice their trades. We're all in this together, and while the problem will no doubt have a greater impact in some countries, all will be affected. IMHO. >> I agree with you that we are all in this together. Still; market forces are simply draining South American programmers towards the US; combined with the eased visa laws this does not bode well at all for those SA countries. Some months ago I read an article about US head hunters literally scavenging those countries, offering 2 - 5 times their current SA wages. Also, I remember some UK official stating that they wanted the UK to becomde the European 'safe Y2k haven'. I simply do NOT see that much pressure by e.g. UK on other European countries to fight Y2k. You have to keep in mind that in recent years many UK programmers went to the continent, where they could earn much more. When a worst case scenario pans out, many countries will revert for quite some time to a semi 'self sufficient' status (especially if international travel would break down for a longer period; not unthinkable to me). We might then well see a trend to 'each country fighting for itself'. Also, I have seen no thoughts at all on what will happen when some countries are much more advanced than others (extreme example: UK and Netherlands much advanced; electricity/water still working more or less; and a total breakdown in e.g. Italy. In Europe people are now free to move and live in other countries (Schengen treaty); this scenario would result in tremendous (nationalistic) potential pressures. Same argument may be valid for different states in the US. Any thoughts? Regards, John ______________ Ken: 'South America will go the way as most other regions, i.e., their IT industry will be heavily controlled if not owned by U.S. multi-nationals. It is already happening to a much greater extent that is being reported in the media. If anything, Y2K will expedite the process. >> In Europe people are now free to move and live in other countries (Schengen treaty); this scenario would result in tremendous (nationalistic) potential pressures. Probably true, but in my view, if Y2K wasn't the catalyst, the Europeans would find some other reason. While a great idea on paper, I still think that Europe will never realize the unity that the Commission politicos seek. The "project" will collapse due to internecine warfare among the national and regional nomenklatura. I anticipate Britain regaining a significant degree of its economic status (within Europe) as a result of the fall-out from Y2K. However, it will be short-lived. Germany is essentially playing a role similar to the Free Democrats within their own system. In other words, they are a natural, historical and economic bridge between the West and the East, and are quite content playing each side (at the risk of over-simplicity, America and Russia) off of the other. Even if Kohl manages to pull another electoral rabbit out of his hat, Germany has already started to move East politically, and in some respects, culturally. If Kohl loses -- and it looks like he will -- then that movement will become more visible and methodical. All my views, mind you, but I like to think that I am a fairly rational student of EU affairs. And keep in mind that I was the first one to begin dismantling the Wall -- May 1989. I broke off a chunk and announced to my colleagues that my action was the beginning of the end of that bloody ediface. Now how's that for an over-blown view of one's self? LOL! [And I was there when it DID open, although unfortunately I was in Bonn rather than Berlin. Na ja.]. Hey, maybe we should take this to the board? ggg. Ken

To: John Mansfield who wrote (13)	9/27/1998 5:37:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44

'More info on Europe please asked in the Electric Utilities and Y2K Q&A Forum Firstly thank you for such high quality information. I live in Spain and have difficulties getting any local information regarding power utilities here. Aceranox is just 20 minutes away from my house - there was a nuclear leak there 2 months ago that they tried to cover up - and is situated within a mile of an oil refinery. I feel very vulnerable and would like suggestions and any URLs regarding Spain's Y2K plans. Asked by Antony Sharman (sharcoe@computronx.com) on September 08, 1998. Answers The three major power utilities in Spain (Endesa S.A, Union Fenosa, Iberdrola) have no Y2k information on their websites. As you know Spain's electric industry has been thrown open to competition and all these utilities are busy selling or consolidating their aging assets. It's better to address your question to the electric regulatory commission in Spain for any progress in Y2k remediation. Also the power grid of Europe is highly interconnected and very interdependent and all European utilities are supposed to tackle Y2k on a high priority. I guess utilities will be cracking on how to trade power across boundaries with the introduction of Euro currency next year. Answered by V Rajsekar (rajsekar@compuserve.com) on September 10, 1998. greenspun.com