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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (39145)	9/26/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: wily	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl: I'm overwhelmed by the thorough and detailed response. Also grateful. Good folks in the Warren Buffet State. You present quite a developed scenario for a time which has yet to arrive, as is the case with most scenarios except for scenarios that deal with times that have already gone by, but in either case the object is something we are prevented from seeing, such as if we weren't there. (Forgive me, it's late in the evening) Your scenario, (to continue what was our subject before being so rudely interrupted) is predicated on two market events: the shift to build-to-order computers, and the y2k phenomenon. You say semiconductor sales were hurt by b-t-o and that we are yet to reap the rebound. I very much like the premise, but I can't quite follow the chain of cause and effect. Next, and the one I like best, is the bullish and uniquely contrarian take on y2k: the surge in PC sales as 2000 nears. I like this very much! Of course! What a win-win for the people who wait: They solve the y2k problem at the same time that a new generation of computers comes on line! (If one can really draw such a sharp line between generations; but still, it is much, much better to wait, whenever possible, to buy a computer, because they get nothing but better AND cheaper. Note the recent surge in computer buying when Windows 98 finally came out. Some have pointed to this as the reason for Intel's strong earnings this quarter: people were WAITING). Excellent! A secondary point you make is that semiconductor companies will need to recover before ordering equipment. I am ignorant here, but how can they sell product if what they produce is obsolete? Or will it just be a much narrower group of companies that participate? Or will technology wait for them? I am not with you as much on this one. It seems that your strategy implies the market will not see new lows. Are you really that sure, or are you keeping some powder dry? You say that Micron was strong during recent market weakness, and I noticed this too. With few exceptions the entire semiconductor and equipment sector idled while everything else went down. I did cue on that for Rambus, which subsequently made a big move. There is talk that next week will be big for semi's: siliconinvestor.com (Note: I have no experience with P&F, and am generally skeptical about pure technical analysis) or at least for Rambus and possibly Micron because of the Intel news. I question the valuation of Rambus, but have no real way of knowing. Broker price forecasts may be subdued to preserve accumulation opportunities. Technology, vis the Nasdaq, is stronger than the DOW post sell-off, as Nasdaq is just below the 200dma while the DOW languishes below. Tech leading again?(still?) Just heard Bob Brinker, and he is bullish: new highs by new year. No recession worries? Why Compaq and not Dell? Heard Dell continues to penetrate...Why are you stuck on WFR if bad management, (or not great). Remember, the body goes where the head makes it go. Thanks again for the great response-- wily

To: Carl R. who wrote (39145)	9/27/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: wily	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl and Thread: From the Rambus thread (this is not new, but I think it is clearer about the intentions of the deal) BTW, does anybody buy into the Mormon conspiracy theory? Also, what does that mean, "highest leverage"?: siliconinvestor.com **************** >>>I did not see this posted, notice the comments about RMBS, sounds as if RDRAM is not the critical aspect of this deal... MileHigh Intel Considers Taking Stake In Micron (09/25/98; 4:03 p.m. ET) By Jack Robertson, Electronic Buyers' News Intel is currently negotiating with Micron Technology to take a minor equity stake in the DRAM maker, a move that would give Intel a steady supply of memory, and Micron capital to pursue its expansion plans, Electronic Buyers' News has learned. Spokespeople at both Intel (company profile) and Micron (company profile) declined to comment. The outcome of the negotiations was still uncertain Friday. And whether Intel's infusion would be provided through financing or a private securities purchase was also unclear. Sources close to the companies, however, said both Intel and Micron are leaning toward a cash transfer. Byron Walker, an analyst at BT Alex.Brown in New York, said he didn't believe the Intel-Micron arrangement when he first heard it. "I checked it out and now believe there's some validity." While it is unclear how Micron would use the funds, the company has several fab projects under way. For one, its long-delayed fab in Lehi, Utah, needs to be equipped. Micron also needs to upgrade three of the Dynamic RAM fabs it recently acquired from Texas Instruments. The Boise, Idaho, company's ambitious expansion plans could make it the overwhelming leader in the global DRAM market, analysts said. Intel's stake in Micron could ensure the microprocessor maker a continued supply of DRAMs, prevent another shortage, and keep DRAM prices from rising again. Some industry observers said it would give the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company the highest leverage in the DRAM market. Major global DRAM competitors would be forced to accelerate their DRAM yields to keep up with low-cost Micron chips. Intel would also co-opt one of the most aggressive rivals to its Direct Rambus DRAM wideband memory standard. Although Micron is developing a Direct RDRAM chip as a backstop strategy, it has made little secret of its plan to promote SLDRAM wideband architecture as an alternative to Direct Rambus DRAM. While the deal would also give Intel an assured supply of Direct RDRAMs, that part of the possible cooperation is not as critical, since a bevy of top-tier DRAM suppliers are already committed to ramping Direct RDRAM output starting with pilot production this fall. One observer hinted Intel might partner with Micron on some of its 300-mm-wafer development technology that could be deployed in the Lehi facility. The technology would let Micron launch the next-generation wafer size in tandem with other chip makers when the new technology moves into the market. Financial sources this week gave more credence to the Intel-Micron report than to the earlier spate of rumors that emanated from South Korea last spring, including Intel's $1 billion cash infusion of Samsung, which never came to pass