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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (15958)	9/26/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 42787

Wow, he got bearish again exchange2000.com >>>>>Read a Barron's on the plane back from Dallas today. the cover said "TIME TO BUY?". I couldn't find ONE bullish article. EVERY SINGLE one was bullish. what does that tell ya? Note that since the Aug 1st lows, New highs have been expanding and new lows contracting. As of the high on Wed, New lows began expanding again FOR THE FIRST TIME!! and new highs contracted, breaking its S-T uptrend. The advance decline line also weakened w/ increasing severity since the high on Wed. decisionpoint.com the US dollar Index broke its flaging uptrend on Thurs and opened at the Aug 1st low on Fri and proceeded to rally back just short of the previous uptrend line which was support. Now that is resistance. Such a move is classic in any L-T top. The stock mkt should make a similar move once we break the current bear flag uptrend, although I don't think the stock mkt will stop at the previous low of 7400 as the dollar did. At all previous major tops, the equity mkt usually overshoots this and hits new lows before a small rally, so I'm looking for a small rally (2 or 3 days) form the 7200-7300 level where the pundits will all call it a "successful retest of the lows." THAT will be the last chance to short before THE CRASH. Dollar is heading DOWN next week. Remember the dollar has been LEADING the mkt down by a few days. decisionpoint.com Note also that my favorite leading indicator... G, rallied on weak vol back to its neckline on the yr-long H&S pattern that it completed. Watch this stock over the next few days. If it hits new lows, which I feel certain it will, the mkt will see new lows. Also keep an eye on MER. The mkt cannot recover if MER doesn't. (for full disclosure purposes... I am short both) XAU pulled back to its 200 dma, such pullbacks are not unexpected and in fact NECESSARY in order for a L-T uptrend to stay healthy. If you aren't long gold, you're wrong... I don't care what Al does on Tues, we're going DOWN. -Lucretius >>>>>>

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (15958)	9/27/1998 12:17:00 AM
From: Electric	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Lee, After last earnings, and how they were watered down (IBM) and they still were cheered for beating them, and the stock took off, I have been very unimpressed with the stock. To me it seems that the street isnt looking at them with the same scrutiny that it does for other stocks. If that has to do with the way the stock went virtually nowhere last year while the bulls ran town, maybe. Look at the chart for last summer to this spring. It was stuck in a tight trading range. I cannot trade a stock that is being favored for reasons that arent fundamental (IMO). IBM is losing its PC share to the best company, and I am not sure they can manage with their integrated products division (software) in which I know a person that works there. On another subject, I think HMTT is very undervalued. It has great growth, it hasnt missed numbers since I have followed it. It has a low PE and if IOM gets its $%^& together, then the stock might get up to the 15 area again. It is a big supplier for IOM, and you know how IOM has done over the last few quarters. Also it is in the sector that has been trashed (SEG, HTCH etc) and I dont think from company merits and acheivements that HMTT has deserved a 50% haircut. I have seen HMTT at 20, and at 5. I think it is a winner. I know the list is long for companies that fit that group though, but at some point they will be rewarded. I found out about HMTT from a man that lives in your neck, told me it is a good co, along with another.. I forget the name, but it is a big corp up there, having to do with agriculture? I forget. Anywho, I wanted to give you a bit more info about what I knew. I cannot decide which camp to be in come this tues. If dennis and others are right, I am happy getting DELL at lower prices, but there are others that feel the end of the drop has occurred. I would love to come to a consensus on here, that would help my decision making process. Gotta take off..