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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (24650)	9/26/1998 11:06:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, 30% cash is a good idea right now. I am what I read and lately the reading has been mostly worrisome and negative. On the PnF thread several posters admitted to suffering from Octoberphobia.<g> There's no cure for that, is there? Or the cure is the arrival of November. Speaking of PnF: the all-important NYSE bullish % number is still rising from its lows and is now at 24% (meaning 24% of stocks have technical buy signals). This is bullish, but doesn't predict what happens next. But then, we have hundreds of web sites and posters on SI to do THAT. The only time I remember the world being in a bigger mess was WWII. You spoke of investing in oil service. Don't do it without consulting Mike Simmon's site and reading his newsletter. loosbrock.com Gottfried

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (24650)	9/27/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, GM, I have followed this MS site for a few months and find it to be amazingly unbiased for a brokerage. Roach is a weekly contributor and I find his writings very enlightening. ms.com Looking forward, I think we are heading into a stage of confusion never experienced by most of the "investors" today. PE/G valuation models do not work during periods when the growth rate is negative, as in the case of AMAT. It used to be so simple that a company with $1 earnings growing at 25% should be worth $25. Now the P, the E and the G of the PE/G formula are all guess work. cme.com When the above is factored into market, new and creative valuation models will emerge. I opine that the value of AMAT is already in the subjective "eyes of the beholders" category. The entire market is headed in that direction. It will not be boring investing in the next few months. Ramsey

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (24650)	9/27/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jake, Excellent commentary, right on the money and in agreement with my "analysis" of the situation that is continuing to develop. I'm very bearish on market/stock performancefor the rest of the year, probably an 8 or 9 on a scale of 10. I just don't have any bullish sentiment at all. Anyone have any rememberance/data that shows what stocks/sectors performed well in '87 or '90 under similar circumstances?? BB

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (24650)	9/27/1998 8:55:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 70976

Jacob: Re: "None of the problems that drove the Dow to 7400 have been solved, or even realistically addressed." Sure, but you can use this line at anytime the market trades. There is always something to worry about. But if you are waiting for solutions, be prepared not to be in the market until prices are substantially higher. The market has had three consecutive up weeks. The NASDAQ is 16% of its lows. All this in the face of an incredible confluence of international and domestic events. The trend is up IMO. This, of course, does not mean we are going straight up. We will have volatility but the up trend is intact in my opinion. Re: "The only good news is that the Fed will ease. That alone is not going to counterbalance everything I said above." Well, never underestimate the Fed as an underpinning to US stocks. But there is more good news. Your concerns have already been substantially discounted in this market in my opinion.