To: Ariella who wrote (1290 ) 9/27/1998 1:30:00 AM From: Ariella Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1491
On the question of what constitutes a "blockbuster" drug.....an important issue because many of us are assuming that HU-211 would fit into this category....... I found several interesting articles tonight that shed light on the question which is, after all, one of investor perception. First, biz.yahoo.com , a discussion about the increasingly important role of blockbuster drugs in the pharmaceutical industry. Definition of a blockbuster drug is given as "one that treats a chronic condition, comes with fewer side effects and can generate significant ongoing prescription volumes." From this perspective, HU-211 doesn't fit -- in its current trial it is not meant for a chronic condition (it might be later on for, say, Alzheimer's or MS). However, without another drug to treat brain injury we would, if successful in launching dexanabinol, rocket to a significant market share immediately of a half to one-million patient count every year just for severe head trauma. The number would rise substantially if other applications prove feasible. From that sense, HU-211's full technology platform definitely belongs in the blockbuster category. Interestingly, while we wring our hands over the current stock price, the analyst in the Yahoo article suggests that ''Investors watching potential blockbuster drugs should get into the stocks beginning in the year before market introduction.'' On this front, we're kind of early, yes? Ground floor opportunity if it works out. Meanwhile, here's an example (albeit a much larger company than PARS) of a stock reaction to a potential blockbuster drug going into Phase III. biz.yahoo.com The Wall Street Transcript has also just published a 26-page report on the growing importance of specialty drug houses who act (like PARS did for BOL) as out-sourced R&D. biz.yahoo.com Another blockbuster drug that made the news this week is from Neogen.http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980922/neopharm_p_1.html Neogen is a small pharmaceutical house. Take a look at the 5-day chart option that Yahoo gives (http://quote.yahoo.com - NEO). Press release came out at 8 a.m. Tuesday. Stock went from about 3.75 to 4.50 over a 2-day period -- a 20% increase. If we have a similarly strong-worded release, I believe we would get a bigger pop since NEO's drug is going into Phase I, while HU-211 is, in effect, gearing up for Phase III. If the paper delivered Oct. 7 warrants such language, I hope very much we will get that assertive language in our release. This hope is based on the fact that Neo and PARS have something in common -- we both have Ruder Finn as outside IR partner and they obviously know what attacts investor interest. If movement into Phase I for a cancer drug with a known predecessor ( NEO's is Liposomal Encapsulated Paclitaxel (LEP), a novel encapsulated form of the widely used anti-cancer drug Taxol(tm)), then wouldn't we be due for a similar pop when we go into Phase I with our Tamoxifen analog? If so, then by the first half of 1999, PARS shares should also be around $4..... Comments? Ariella