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Non-Tech : Shorting the Big Banks (e.g. JPM, BT, CMB, CCI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BDR who wrote (137)	9/27/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 268

Dale, I just read an article in today's paper quoting an analyst from First Call as saying that 3rd Q profits overall will be about 2% lower than 1997 3rd Q profits. Victor

To: BDR who wrote (137)	9/29/1998 1:00:00 AM
From: BDR	Respond to of 268

From Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum ms.com Global: More Cuts to Global Growth Stephen Roach (New York) The seemingly endless progression of cuts to our global economic growth forecast continues. On the basis of sharp downward revisions to our forecasts of Japan and Latin America, together with a modest lowering of our US numbers, we are reducing our 1999 world GDP growth forecast to just 2.2% (from 2.8%), and we are also nudging down our estimate of 1998 world growth to 2.1% (from 2.2%). These changes put our global growth forecast right at the 2% threshold that historically has been associated with the onset of worldwide recession...... Robert Feldman's recent further downward revisions to his 1998-99 Japanese growth forecast are dramatic, even by standards of an ever-deepening Asian crisis. He has lowered his CY98 real GDP estimate to -2.9% (from -1.8%) and also cut his CY99 estimate to -1.2% (from (+0.4%), easily marking Japan's steepest and most protracted recession of the postwar era........ Latin America accounts for another 9% of global GDP, and we have made equally dramatic cuts in our growth forecast for this region of the world. Specifically, we have pared our pan-regional Latin growth estimates to 2.4% for CY98 (from +3.0%) and we have slashed our CY99 forecast to -0.4% (from +3.5%). According to Chip Brown, Brazil -- which accounts for fully 40% of the region's GDP -- is now likely to slip into outright recession in 1999, even if it is successful in mounting a "stout defense" of the beleaguered real; in the event that such efforts fail and an Asian-style "maxi-devaluation" occurs, Chip would place the downside on Brazilian growth in 1999 at -8%; unfortunately, even with rumors of an imminent announcement of a large international bailout package for Brazil, Chip now assigns a 30% probability to just such a worst-case outcome.