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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cfimx who wrote (5073)	9/27/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78519

re: merger call-offs and CIEN. Yes, a person would think that an acquiring co's bid would set the value of the company. And that things don't change so much in a month or so. But these are assumptions; I've found I've been burned many times with 'em. For example, Mellon directors rejecting buyout bid at 90; stock gradually declining to its present 57. Kemet directors rejecting bid of $25, stock rising to 30 slowly dropping to 9+. Perhaps the fundamentals did change, maybe they didn't. Regardless, stock prices did decline and stay down. (I've seen the same thing with selling homes, but that's another story.) For dj8000 interested in buying/holding CIEN, my opinion would be that if you (Twister) are recommending (buying) CIEN, that would be a very positive sign. I defer to your knowledge and insights here Twister. For me, it's very hard to make the leap that CIEN is a value stock. Maybe it has value to an acquirer, but I can't figure it. If the value is strategic or even of tactical importance, then there is, IMO, a premium that the acquiring company is very willing to pay. And I think that that premium is a "value" above the value as determined by a Ben Graham kind of analysis. This premium value is too tough for me to figure. But I think you are right in saying that tracking insider buys will provide a clue as to what CIEN executives think about this if they step up their buys.