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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (29127)	9/27/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Monty, Soros made it up by being short the rubble. IMHO, He keeps quiet on this to keep himself out of trouble. BWDIK Haim

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (29127)	9/28/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Monty; RE there are lies being played out in the market, the key is to recognize them and know when to get out before all the other participants recognize them. ------------------------ and it was Soros that made that statement and from what I hear he didn't figure out one of them in time or he would not have lost 2+ Billion recently. --------------------------- I reckon they float so many they try to recognize when the herd will catch on to the one they are telling and jump out just ahead of that, but then they get messed up at times because the competition tells a bigger one. ----------------------- The head SEC man is suppose to talk tonight..and tell us just how honest the market is. <G> ----------------------- I'm getting into a new kick, the max pain kick, It's not my idea , but the guy who turned me onto it don't track the stocks I wanta track, The 4 top Naz100, and 4 top NYSE market Caps. Then the SPX options. With that I think we might get another indicator. The idea is that most options expire worthless, and that's true. Also that as ex-date draws near stocks tend to move towards the point were the most money will be lost by the option buyers. So doing the top 8 stocks , and the spx and getting a mean average we should come up with an indicator. The idea here is to use the options as an indicator, ( this meets my requirements on strategy as being the key way to play ) This will take some work, and I haven't tested it yet but I feel it's worth a look. An example In a simple form would be like msft strike call-OI put-OI $total 105 20 400 $44100 110 50 300 $38500 < the most pain is here 115 100 250 $40250 or between the two. 120 400 20 $50400 ----------------------- I know this don't play out on every stock, as I have checked it that far. But it works more often than not, so if you sum up the Big Super caps and toss in the SPX it should work as an indicator, as long as you only count on it when the results show a sizable difference from the actual price. The writers of options by and large are smarter than the buyers, ( with a few exceptions ), I have to add that , because I'm sure every buyer thinks they are one of the exceptions, other wise they wouldn't be buying. and I don't want every option buyer trying to roast me at the stake. Just the same the big picture shows with out a doubt more money goes into the hands of the writers than the buyers. Well that's not all together true, actually I think the most money winds up in the hands of the Specialist and brokers, but that's beside the point and isn't relative to using the option OI as an indicator for the most pain point. Jim