GartnerGroup's Dataquest Reports Worldwide Semiconductor Market to
Grow Nearly 12 Percent in 1999; Upcoming Dataquest Conference to
Discuss the Future of the Semiconductor Market
BW - 08:41 a.m. Sep 28, 1998 Eastern
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 28, 1998--The
economic crisis in Asia/Pacific continues to cause concern in the
semiconductor industry, although the worldwide semiconductor market
is forecast to grow 11.8 percent in 1999, following a 6 percent decline
in 1998, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group, Inc.
(NYSE:IT).
Because of the strong effect of DRAM market volatility on the total
semiconductor forecast, Dataquest has forecast the semiconductor
market into two scenarios: one forecast including DRAM, and another
forecast without DRAM. Dataquest analysts estimate worldwide
semiconductor revenue will reach $155 billion in 1999. The forecast for
the semiconductor market, excluding DRAM, is for revenue to reach
$124 billion in 1999, an increase of 9.7 percent over 1998 revenue.
"Although the microprocessor market should rebound in some regions
during the fourth quarter of 1998, the global impact of weak Asian
economies means key semiconductor markets will likely not strengthen
until the middle of 1999," said Joe Grenier, vice president and director
of Dataquest's Semiconductor Device programs. "The semiconductor
market will continue to confront oversupply. The foundry oversupply
will persist for the next 18 months, and the DRAM oversupply will last
until mid-or-late 2000."
Europe is the only region projected to maintain positive growth in 1998.
The European semiconductor market is forecast to grow 1.4 percent in
1998. Japan is expected to decline 15.8 percent in 1998, while the
Americas region is forecast to drop 4.7 percent, and Asia/Pacific is
expected to decline 3.5 percent.
"Despite the positive growth we anticipate for 1999, the industry still
faces a stiff challenge. Under current economic conditions, demand
throughout Asia, including Japan, for semiconductor-based products
will remain sluggish at best," said George Shiffler, senior analyst with
Dataquest's worldwide Research Operations group.
More information on this market is available in the Dataquest's Alert
titled, "Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast: 6 Percent Decline in 1998
Followed by 12 Percent Growth for 1999." This Alert includes
Dataquest's most recent forecast for the worldwide semiconductor
market. A more detailed forecast will be published in the upcoming
Market Trends report titled "Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast and
Trends -- Fall 1998." This report is scheduled to be available by the end
of October.
To purchase the report, please call 800/419-DATA, or 408/468-8009.
More information about Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent
research reports, and full text of press releases can be found on the
Internet at dataquest.com.
Dataquest analysts will provide detailed analysis of the semiconductor
market during the upcoming conference, "Dataquest Semiconductors
'98: Issues and Opportunities in the Next Recovery." This conference
will be held October 19-21 at the Hyatt Regency in San Diego, Calif.
Dataquest analysts and industry leaders will examine the issues that will
impact the semiconductor industry as it enters the 21st century.
For more information on the conference please call 800/778-1997 or
203/316-6757, or send an e-mail to ashley.pearce@gartner.com. A
complete agenda and registration form is available on Dataquest's Web
site at dataquest.com.
GartnerGroup's Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the
high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for
the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications,
document management, software, and services sectors of the global
information technology industry.
As the world's leading authority on IT, GartnerGroup provides clients
with a wide range of products and services in the areas of IT advisory
services, measurement, research, decision support, analysis, and
consulting. Founded in 1979, with headquarters in Stamford, Conn.,
GartnerGroup is at the center of a global community with more than
11,000 client organizations served by analysts in 80 locations
worldwide. Additional information about the company is available on
the Internet at gartner.com.
Copyright 1998, Business Wire
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