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To: Ahda who wrote (19888)	9/27/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

New Era started-great time for Kohl to retire...France would move in center stage? Exit Polls: German Chancellor Defeated In Election 12:15 p.m. Sep 27, 1998 Eastern BONN (Reuters) - Gerhard Schroeder beat veteran German chancellor Helmut Kohl in a general election Sunday, an exit poll for ARD television said. The poll gave Schroeder's Social Democratic Party 41 percent compared with 36 percent for Kohl's conservative Christian Democratic alliance. A separate exit poll for ZDF television gave the SPD 41 percent and the Christian Democrats 35 percent. The environmental Greens, a likely coalition partner for the SPD, won 6.5 percent of the vote, according to both exit polls, tied with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), Kohl's junior coalition partner for the last 16 years. The reform communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) won 5.0 percent of the vote, enough to bring them back into parliament in full strength. The results, if confirmed, would mean that Kohl's 16-long reign has come to an end. But it appears to be too early to tell if Schroeder will lead a left-leaning coalition with the Greens or a so-called ''grand coalition'' with the CDU. Voter turnout was high despite scattered showers around the country as the polls opened for the vote that could end Kohl's record 16 years in power. Voting in his Rhineland hometown of Ludwigshafen, Kohl, 68, said he was pleased with the campaign that helped him come from behind to stand almost neck-and-neck with Schroeder. ''I campaigned very hard and I'm very confident,'' he told journalists. ''Now let's see what the voters decide.'' Schroeder, 54, told reporters after voting in Hanover that he felt fine after his slick campaign. ''But I don't want to conceal the fact that I am a little bit excited,'' he added. Under Germany's complex election system, the election could result in the re-election of Kohl's Christian Democrat (CDU) and Free Democrat (FDP) coalition, a coalition of Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, or a CDU-SPD grand coalition. Since Kohl refuses any role in a grand coalition, this so-called ''elephants' wedding'' could be led by Schroeder or Kohl's deputy Wolfgang Schaeuble if the CDU is ahead. Political party headquarters in Bonn were preparing for a long evening and last-minute surprises as late as midnight that might determine the final shape of the new government. Some 60.5 million Germans are eligible to vote for the two men vying to lead Europe's economic powerhouse, and polling centers registered a high turnout for the cliffhanger vote. ''There was a lot of show in this election campaign,'' Frankfurt teacher Holger Jung, 31, commented after voting. ''I think we will have a grand coalition, but the main thing for me is to get rid of Kohl.'' Jung voted SPD but said he wasn't a typical working class SPD supporter. ''I want something more like Labor in Britain or the Democrats in the United States,'' he said. ''I think the CDU will come through, because the market economy is still such a big issue,'' said Claudia Schenkel, 24, a bilingual secretary. ''I think people are afraid the SPD will be too socially-oriented in their policy and there is a strong fear of change. The CDU bring order, and you need that.'' Kohl's defeat seemed inevitable only six months ago when Schroeder won the SPD nomination and vowed to steer a course for the ''new center'' of German politics. The ''Schroeder effect'' has weakened since August and the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have closed the gap to within the margin of error of many opinion polls. Final voter surveys before the election showed Schroeder's SPD leading by between one and four percentage points but political analysts said the race was too close to call. Schroeder had hoped to form a government with the left-wing, environmentalist Greens. But the erosion of SPD support makes a grand coalition of SPD and CDU a likely option. Germany last had such a government from 1966 to 1969. Schroeder started campaigning in the spring with a lead of 12 percentage points. He blamed Kohl for post-war record unemployment and political stagnation, but Kohl bounced back as the economy picked up and joblessness declined. Germany's election laws add to the unpredictability of the race because small shifts in local voting patterns can have a decisive influence on the final result in Bonn. No post-war chancellor has been voted out of office. Earlier power changes came through shifts in coalitions. There are 656 seats in parliament, half elected by direct votes for deputies from the 328 constituencies and half picked from party slates in the 16 federal states that voters choose with the second ballot they cast Sunday. Thirty-three parties with 5,062 candidates, ranging from neo-Nazis to anarchists, have entered the field. The small parties could hold the balance of power. Both the Greens and Kohl's current coalition partners, the liberal Free Democrats, are expected to reach the five percent of the national vote needed to enter parliament. An SPD-Green government could be scuttled by the reform communist Party of Democratic Socialism. The PDS is battling the SPD in the former communist east. If it wins three direct seats in its Berlin stronghold it can get around the five percent hurdle and enter parliament. This would make an SPD-Green alliance impossible on current projections. In the October 1994 election, Kohl's CDU/CSU won 41.5 percent, the SPD 36.4 percent, the FDP 6.9 percent, the Greens 7.3 percent and the PDS 4.4 percent. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Ahda who wrote (19888)	9/27/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

What a time...and who is in charge of handling all of this..Yeltsin, Clinton, Blair, Obuchi,,now this..Saddam has more stature than them.. "The serious questions that Germany faces have proved too serious for either side to put on the table. There are a lot of undesirable truths out there, but people will not face up to them." Kohl's reign set to end in German poll cliffhanger By Philip Sherwell in Berlin >Federal Elections - German Embassy and German information centre >Yahoo election coverage [in German] >German Parties on the WWW - Agorà Telematica The new dome of the once and future home of the German parliament, the Reichstag SIXTY million Germans go to the polls today, apparently set on electing a weak coalition government, ill-equipped to handle the the country's economic woes and turmoil on financial markets. With the closest elections since 1945 heading for a cliffhanger conclusion, it seems many voters will make their choice only as they arrive at the polling stations. The only certainty is that talks about forming coalitions will begin as soon as the ballots close at 6pm. But the vote is expected to herald the end for Helmut Kohl, the 19-stone political colossus who is Europe's longest-serving leader. Although opinion polls predict a close finish, the Social Democrats' Gerhard Schröder remains the frontrunner. But the country's complex electoral system has thrown up a bizarre quirk of history: the fate of the ex-communist party of Democratic Socialism in its eastern strongholds is likely to decide whether he will rule in a grand coalition with the Christian Democrats or in a Red-Green alliance with the environmentalists. Germany is condemned to coalition governments by the vagaries of the sort of proportional representation system that Tony Blair has contemplated for Britain. The various coalition permutations point to a government too weak to overhaul an uncompetitive economy with unemployment at more than four million. The impact of this decision-making paralysis is already being felt in the depressed east, where unemployment is nearly 20 per cent and both the PDS and the far-Right are attracting disillusioned voters. Despite the exciting finish, Germany's next leader will have won by default after an uninspiring contest between the rivals for chancellor. A hoarse, tired and tense Mr Schrouml;der signed off in lacklustre form at his final campaign rally in front of more than 10,000 party faithful at an east Berlin sports stadium. Gone was the confident, expansive man who just a few weeks ago thought he was coasting to victory. Instead, the SPD candidate perspired nervously under the arc lights as he struggled to enliven the crowd. "Germans can vote for a new awakening or for stagnation," he said. Despite Chancellor Kohl's achievements he had divided the people, not united them, he said. Seeking a record fifth term, Mr Kohl did not do much better on his Rhineland home turf in Mainz. He delivered one of his long and rambling speeches, heavy on history and light on vision. The message was simple: a vote for the CDU was a vote for stability and continuity. But Germans want a change at the top. They are, however, fearful of painful economic reforms. Historian Dr Michael Stürmer, a former Kohl adviser said: "The serious questions that Germany faces have proved too serious for either side to put on the table. There are a lot of undesirable truths out there, but people will not face up to them." Downing Street is hoping for a Social Democrat victory that will complete a clean sweep for the moderate Left in Europe's big four - Germany, Britain, France and Italy - and bolster British efforts to take a central role in European politics. Mr Schröder, an Anglophile north German Protestant, has been pushing the idea of a European "triangle" of Berlin, London and Paris to replace the long-standing Franco-German axis. The concept is viewed with suspicion in France and with interest in London. A Foreign Office official said: "You could compare this to being flattered by the approach of a beautiful girl, only to find that she was on the rebound from her first boyfriend." If Mr Kohl is voted out of office, it will be the former communist east that costs him his job. Eight years of economic hardship have overcome the gratitude it felt for unification. Mr Kohl is the last leading international statesman shaped by the turmoil of the Second World War. His obsession with European unity was driven by his desire to make sure the continent never again witnessed such devastation. Mr Schröder, born in 1944, is not burdened by the Chancellor's personal history and, say political commentators, likely to take a case-by-case approach to foreign policy. The implications for Britain would become clear within months as Germany assumes the European presidency in January. Mr Schröder is likely to join Britain in calling for an overhaul of the Common Agricultural Policy, leaving France isolated. But he will push for marked reductions in Germany's contributions to the EU. Regardless of how Germans vote, Mr Kohl is assured of his place in history. He has led his party for 25 years and his people for 16, steered through unification and championed European integration by means of the single currency. But he will leave behind a country where the toughest decisions may have yet to be taken. telegraph.co.uk

To: Ahda who wrote (19888)	9/27/1998 7:40:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116759

ANALYSIS-Schroeder seen as less European than Kohl 05:33 p.m Sep 27, 1998 Eastern By Paul Taylor, Diplomatic Editor LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - If allied governments had had a vote in Germany's general election on Sunday, most would have preferred a grand coalition of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats to keep the quirky, ecologist Greens out of power. They may yet get their wish. But with the Cold War over, even the possibility of a red-green coalition ruling Germany no longer sets alarm bells ringing in Washington, London or Paris. Allied officials see Gerhard Schroeder, the centre-left challenger who swept veteran conservative Chancellor Helmut Kohl from power after a record 16 years, as a pragmatic Atlanticist but less of a European federalist than his predecessor. In an interview with BBC World Service television after his victory, Schroeder said: ''We are not going to do everything differently...Germany will remain a reliable partner abroad, perhaps a bit more dangerous for its competitors on world markets.'' He also said: ''We have to think about a European reorientation.'' The SPD candidate went to the White House in August to assure President Bill Clinton that there would be no change in foreign policy if he won. But some U.S. officials, notably in the Defence Department, are still nervous. ''Some people in Washington regard the left-wing of the SPD and the Greens as dangerous for NATO, but from the point of view of basic American interests, there really is nothing to worry about,'' said Dana Allin, a specialist on transatlantic relations at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Germany would participate in NATO military operations in the Balkans even if the Greens, who voted earlier this year at a party congress for the dissolution of the alliance, were in government, he said. Allin noted that Joschka Fischer, the Greens politician most likely to take a senior role in any red-green coalition, was a keen interventionist who supported Bonn's decision to send troops to the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Bosnia. Sir Christopher Mallaby, a former British ambassador to Germany, said Schroeder was ''the ultimate opportunist.'' Foreign governments would feel more comfortable if experienced CDU figures such as parliamentary leader Wolfgang Schaeuble and outgoing Defence Minister Volker Ruehe shared power with the SPD, he said. If such a grand coalition did not come about, Mallaby said Schroeder might well try to draw the economically liberal Free Democratic Party, junior partners in Kohl's defeated government, into a coalition within a year or two. Mallaby said the new chancellor lacked Kohl's visionary enthusiasm for closer European integration. But Dominique Moisi, deputy director of the French Institute for International Relations, said Germany had already been moving towards a more decentralised Europe in Kohl's last years. ''By pressing for European integration, Kohl delayed the consequences of German unification in 1990. But Germany is going to behave more like France in asserting its national interests and take a more British view of Europe -- pragmatic and less federalist,'' Moisi said. ''Germany is becoming a more normal country, and that is not comfortable for France,'' he said. Schroeder has said he aims to turn the central Franco-German partnership that has driven the European Union for four decades into a more balanced leadership triangle including Britain. That may explain the delight which British Prime Minister Tony Blair, with whom Schroeder is often compared, voiced within minutes of the first exit polls being broadcast. A British source said Schroeder was likely to underline that message by flying to Blackpool on Thursday to make an appearance at Blair's New Labour party conference. French President Jacques Chirac was also quick to invite the winner to visit Paris, this week if possible. German and French analysts said Schroeder felt less affinity with the French than did Kohl, whose partnership with the late President Francois Mitterrand and former European Commission President Jacques Delors was central to the 1991 decision at Maastricht to create a single European currency. ''Britain stands to gain from this result. Kohl was the dominant figure of his generation in Europe, and his departure means Blair will be well placed to play a leadership role if he takes Britain towards joining the single currency,'' said Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. But both Moisi and Mallaby said Franco-German relations would remain central, if only because the institutionalised dialogue forced the two governments to seek common positions on EU issues. Most analysts said Schroeder was likely to concentrate on the domestic economy and unemployment, spending less time on foreign affairs initially than his predecessor. But Germany takes on the presidency of the 15-nation EU for six months in January with responsibility for concluding a major overhaul of the Union's budget, agricultural and regional funds. It will also chair the Group of Seven major industrial powers in 1999. European diplomats said the SPD should find it easier to reform the EU's costly Common Agricultural Policy because it was less beholden to the farm vote than the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. They also said Schroeder might be less enthusiastic about the eastward enlargement of the Union because of the cost and concern about a flood of migrant labour from central and eastern Europe. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.