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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (24655)	9/27/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: John L.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

These predictions are meaningless, for every prediction of 5000 sometime in '99 you can find a fool to say 2000. If recession hits his prediction will come true, if Japan and Asia recover the optimist could be right. I would bet either one of these people that they are wrong since it is rare that either extreme point is reached. The fed will act well before a drastic drop and the rest of the world will become more motivated to clean up there act if exports to the US stall. We are consuming the majority of the world goods now, if sentiment turns spending dries up and our imports will drop causing Japan to deal with there problems. Time will tell but slow improvement seems like the direction we are headed with fed easing next week and hopefully Japan dealing with there banking problems soon.

To: Gottfried who wrote (24655)	9/27/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, Amazing, someone more bearish than I am. Even though I targeted a low of 6000-6400, Murphy projects lows of 5500-6000. If that occurred it would strip the markets of about 40-45% of its highest value posted this summer, a scary proposition unless one is heavy with cash to take advantage of the carnage!!8^) BB

To: Gottfried who wrote (24655)	9/27/1998 6:23:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Although I'm a little more sanguine about the market than Murphy, I do believe we will see a rotational Bear market- we are already seeing it so this isn't really earth-shattering news. Not all sectors will fall and most(none?) should fall 40% from here. That's a little extreme IMO. Look at the Poster Child of overvaluation-KO. It's now down about 40% from its high. Much of the risk has been removed from the market by the bleeding we've seen lately, especially in the techs over the past year. IMO companies like KO will lag behind sectors which are already a year into their Bear market; sector like the equips and the drillers. I am placing my bets that the SOX and the semis will stage a recovery in early/mid 99 and the equips will follow a similar trajectory with the big gains made this time next year and into 2000. BK