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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (18622)	9/27/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: Gil Gilbertson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

More food for thought on "Life on the Amazon" 1. I believe most rational investors would agree that fundamentals mean nothing in this situation, even if Amazon is going to be the ultimate in book and internet marketing in the year 2000+, we all know the market can gyrate up and down many times inbetween. 2. A look at the chart will show a round top distribution was made by the pros including insiders in the area of 109 to 120+ then the stocked dumped hard until short covering commenced and a new group of players jumped on board to soak up the float and again the big squeeze has brought us up to the distribution area. This is a normal knee jerk recovery of a strong trading stock. The rally usually fails unless the fundamentals improve dramatically. (not likely this trip with Barnes floating an ipo). 3. This action reminds me of the run Caesars Palace made about twenty years ago. I was getting my basic training and I went short when it dropped from 38 to 26. I felt like a genius when it went to 18. I took a trip to Las Vegas and sure enough, it was Jan and business was lousy, I was sure they would go broke. My broker called me the next day at the hotel and asked if I wanted to cover because the stock had gone up to 19.75 that morning.. My reply was "Hell no, they cant fool me this company has problems". After the market closed the stock was at 20 1/2 and I started to rethink the situation . We headed home for Orange county and the next morning I was at the brokerage when there was a delayed opening on Caesars pending announcement. My throat got a lump in it the size of a football as we waited. Then it came, Caesars announced they would be opening Atlantic city and the stock openend at 31 up almost 10 points. I thoughtl, "well, it will settle in an hour and I'll cover. Well, the pressure stayed on and it moved up to 34 about an hour before closing. The broker says what do you want to do? I said, lets see what happens on the close." Well, I covered at 42 as the stock raced upwards on the close. The trap was shut and I wanted out. It cost me $40,000 for that lesson. The only positive point was the stock gapped the next morning and ran to 110 before it crapped out.I was much more humble and wiser. I dont know where this AMZN will finally top, but it will, in the meantime buy the out of the money puts if you must short as when it tanks, it will tank hard. My guess is the next 60 days will see a dramatic change in the climate and then tax loss selling will take care of the rest. Yankee Gil