Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1230)	9/29/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: Alan Norton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

RE: Model Prediction The model is not designed to predict less than 10% corrections. Supposedly the model is designed to predict intermediate corrections of between 10% and 20%. These are the most difficult to project. They are rare ducks. The model failed to pick up this intermediate correction. The numbers don't lie and he has admitted this on the program several times. He has not downplayed this in my opinion. He has gone out of his way to admit he was mistaken in analyzing the magnitude of the correction. Justa, Thank you for the explanation re: Bob's model. I agree that intermediate corrections are hard to predict. They are indeed rare birds While Bob has yet to say that he his model has failed, he has stated that the correction was greater than his forecasts. My point is that unless and until Bob is willing to modify his model, it may continue to fail to predict this market. Perhaps we are simply discussing semantics here, but for those listening on the radio, semantics are important. I would like to see Bob modify his model to 'forecast' this correction based upon a retest of historical data. His model has failed to include foreign markets and their impact on ours. That, in my opinion, is why his model has failed this test. We seem to be at a time when the market does not know which way to go. Some of the bears are covering their positions. My very limited research is telling me that small investors are frozen in place. They are not buying, neither are they selling. In fact, I would be willing to guess that the number of posts at Silicon Investor has decreased during this period as investors try to make out the direction of this market. But the model designed primarily to predict bear markets. I would not call this a bear market at this point while certainly a number of individual stocks have had their own bear markets. But I prefer to make any final judgements regarding Brinker's model performance come sometime next year. It isn't a bear market yet. We will have to wait for tomorrows Fed action to determine the direction of the market. Regardless of the Fed's actions, the market will eventually be looking to earnings. Earnings disappointments based upon summer estimates will signify that the Fed may be too late. Meeting or exceeding estimated earnings will be a sign that we may still have time to fix this mess.