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To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (1500)10/1/1998 2:20:00 AM
From: dogness  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1998
 
(Support @ 13 ?)

Now that we are testing support at 13 it is painfully obvious that global bear market has more of an effect on this stock then the potentially good fundamentals. I personally think that the market may also be telling us that xdsl profits may take much longer to come than (I) originally expected. Hence I don't see 13 stopping this drop in price, unfortunately.
I now have only 6% of the stock I once held just a few months ago. I've taken a hit on most of the other shares.

Why am I writing this? Not sure. Except I just wanted to balance some of the optimism on the thread by pointing out the obvious trend. Either that, or I'm panicking. If I am, then maybe the bottom is close. Only time will tell. Good luck to all.

Dog



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (1500)10/13/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: savolainen  Respond to of 1998
 
[telco video]

hi darrell,

going back to that post of yours regarding the significance of dt's trading in their cable plans for dsl... if you hadn't noticed this one, thought you might be interested that gte's thinking along the same lines ... abandoning cable for dsl for video etc... (eventually) seems like the name of the game (for both dt, gte and a few others) quite likely will be fsan vdsl...

.. relevant portions of a great article from June of this year :

----
Telcos think VDSL may be video savior
By Fred Dawson, Contributing Editor

Technological advances emerging in stride with rising concern over an aggressively expanding cable industry are leading the telcos back to their future.

Like it or not, local exchange carriers are once again confronting the fact that the ability to offer video entertainment services is vital to holding onto their core residential voice and dial-up data market. The cable industry, by opening a high-speed data channel into the home that will eventually support IP (Internet Protocol) voice services, is waving an even redder flag now than it did with earlier, non-standardized packet voice strategies, notes Vern Mackle, telecommunications analyst with International Data Corp.
...

While these telcos are using a variety of network technologies to facilitate early expansion, their longer-term ambitions are founded on a consensus platform that has come out of nowhere in the past half year or so to dominate strategic planning. Known as "VDSL" (very high speed digital subscriber line), the platform is said to offer telcos the ability to terminate fiber as far as 4,000 feet away from the end user, and still deliver a full range of digital services at speeds of 13 to 52 megabits per second, depending on distance, over the copper pairs extending from the fiber nodes.

In support of developing standards for the platform, BellSouth, GTE, SBC and Bell Canada have joined forces with Japan's NTT, seven European carriers (these are dt, bt, ft, telecom italia, swisscom, dutch ptt, and telephonica- also fsan worldwide list is probably worth watching as orctf has notched up deployments with two: dt and gte, and has been trialling with most of the rest)

So far, the international Full Service Access Network initiative has produced agreement on an ATM/PON (passive optical network) specification that has been passed along to the International Telecommunications Union and a VDSL spec, including levels of noise and interference to be tolerated, that has been passed to the American National Standards Institute, says Alan Quayle, principal engineer for broadband at British Telecom, a member of the group.

In addition, the group has reached agreement on the set of OAM (operations, administration and maintenance) requirements needed to monitor and manage performance of the fiber/copper system, Quayle says. "Now, the big task for us is to agree on the means by which all these separate pieces are integrated into a total broadband access system," he adds.

Together, the member carriers represent about 310 million lines, or approximately 45 percent of telephone lines worldwide, Quayle notes. While FSAN is not mandated to set price targets, he says, members expect that their combined market strength will have a powerful impact on prices, not only because of the potential volume of orders, but also because unanimity on specifications will force vendors to compete on price...

The emergence of VDSL has stopped two telcos, Bell Atlantic and GTE, in their tracks when it comes to deploying video services plant. Both carriers have put previous plans on hold and are now focusing on the new option. Bell Atlantic, which has slowed deployment of its FTTC broadband network in the Philadelphia area and beyond, remains committed to its large-scale fiber strategy with plans to eventually add video and data to voice over such facilities, says BA spokeswoman Shannon Fioravanti. "Our plans for the full service network are still very much alive, but we're taking time to study new technical developments to ensure that what we deploy isn't outdated before we finish the job," she says.

Work on a VDSL solution is part of the new working relationship set up between BroadBand Technologies Inc. and Lucent Technologies Inc., which are partnered in supplying full service networks in some Bell Atlantic territories, including Philadelphia. "We expect to see field trials this year, and deployments starting next year," says Don McCullough, director of product line management at BBT.

At GTE, where video services are offered over hybrid fiber/coax networks in California and Florida, the carrier has decided to stop building HFC networks in favor of moving to the VDSL platform , sources say. "We're not ready to discuss details, but we have had a strong vendor response to our (VDSL) RFP and will be announcing our next moves shortly," says a GTE insider, asking not to be named...

Anyone having seen telcos slip and slide trying to devise enduring video strategies is well advised to be skeptical about the activity surrounding VDSL. But if US West builds out Phoenix on the promised scale this year and moves on into other territories in '99, there will be every reason to believe the telcos have finally found a means of taking cable on.

"What's driving this is the fact that we believe the provider who can offer the highest value package of multiple services is going to hold onto the customer the longest," Beigie says. The cable-telco war might be late in coming, but it could be a brutal affair when it finally gets rolling.

Telcos think VDSL may be video savior: Companies prepare to battle cable for multi-service mantle

cedmagazine.com

and another reference:
---
DBS Pact Expands GTE Video Ventures
4/13/98
By MONICA HOGAN

... (discussion of direcTv)...

GTE had also announced recently that it "will write down investments in hybrid fiber-coax [HFC] technology associated with its video trial markets because of advances in new technologies that will eliminate the need for duplicate networks."

Wilson said GTE plans a move to VDSL (very high-speed digital subscriber line), a wire that can integrate voice, data and video on twisted copper. Wilson called VDSL "the platform of the future."

GTE will use a mix of solutions as they make sense in each particular market, Wilson said, and added, "We're not banking on only one technology."
....

204.243.31.23



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (1500)10/13/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: savolainen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1998
 
[migration scenerios: dlc-onu/ adsl-vdsl]

hi darrell,

along the lines of the fsan (full service access network) vdsl stuff thought you or others might be interested in some thoughts on how orctf (and others) might get there or migration scenerios... any and all comments welcome...
---

migration scenerios: dlc-onu/ adsl-vdsl

cribbing along the way from: "adsl and dsl technologies" by goralski.. (proofed by orctf's very own nigel cole)

in the spring of 97, at the time of their north american "alliance" announcement, orctf and fujitsu noted future planned integrated equipment which they were working on:

"...Fujitsu also presented a glimpse into the next stages of its DSL technology development. In 1998, the company said, it will offer VDSL and SDSL cards (also hdsl cards noted later on in this press release) that plug right into the FACTR Broadband Access Platform..... "This integration is aimed at those carriers who want to provide a fiber-to-the-neighborhood implementation. ...
fnc.fujitsu.com

.... have been watching and trying to understand what they were talking/hinting about for the last year and a half : in a nutshell believe orctf and fujitsu have been working on a way to interface xdsl with SONET/SDH rings (copper to fiber) from a remote site (beyond the central office) ... as part of a fiber fed digital loop carrier architecture (DLC).. or next generation DLC (NGDLC)...

if they are on schedule, early next year, believe we could be looking at a fujitsu optical network unit (ONU) which will have the functionality of the dslam (orctf's fast internet) built in along with a SONET add/drop multiplexer (ADM), some switching and routing capabilities , and a NGDSC or at least an interface for a NGDLC for digitizing analog voice for transport on the SONET ring...

in such an architecture, the end of the adsl service is not in the local exchange office, but in the DLC remote digital terminal itself where the digital info is passed onto the sonet ring on its own...

over time, many feel the local exchange or central office as we know it will become progressively less important or problematic as a bottleneck as this more distributed architecture (fiber to the neighborhood) becomes more widespread... which of course sets the stage for vdsl...

believe we could be looking at two interelated dsl migration scenerios: "from adsl in the local exchange to adsl in the next generation dlc equipment" and "from adsl delivered services to vdsl delivered services"

whether or not orctf and fujitsu will be be competitive remains to be seen, but they do seem to be working on the right stuff... for context probably worth noting that fujitsu has something on the order of 30 to 40% of the sonet/sdh market...

relevant dlc/onu portions of orctf related press releases:

from the recent dt press release 9/98:

"The FastInternet can migrate into the Full Service Access Network (FSAN) architecture required by Deutsche Telekom. Fujitsu, a leader in the field of fiber optic equipment, will integrate FastInternet into its Optical Line Terminations (OLTs) and Optical Network Units (ONUs) for this future architecture."

telechoice gte announcement 4/98?:

"...With regards to overcoming the DLC hurdle, GTE states that there are a fair amount of them in the network and that, with the help of Orckit/Fujitsu, they are working towards migrating to DLC-based services. Interestingly -- and in keeping with their commitment under this contract -- they are not, for instance, looking to Lucent, Nortel, etc. for DLC solutions..."

gte update 9/98:

"..GTE expects to extend service by early next year, following Fujitsu's expected delivery of DSL-access multiplexers (DSLAMs) for installation in the remote terminals served by digital-loop carriers (DLCs) . DSLAMs extend the reach of central-office switches beyond their local-loop bases..."
multichannel.com