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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (3860)	9/28/1998 2:40:00 PM
From: Doug Moulton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

gbh, I'm with you....I don't see how it is even worth $20. Here is why... with a PE of 25 (ie its projected 5 yr growth rate) it needs to make 80 cents next year to give it a worth of 20 bucks. What I can see is all the analyst are lowering there estimates to 50 cents or less. None the less, it is a great stock to day trade. Doug

To: gbh who wrote (3860)	9/28/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Bob Smith	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12623

GBH...Go Tell Goldman <<Doug, all I can tell you, is that I believe CIEN is correctly valued now, given its growth prospects for the next 12 months.>> Go tell Goldman they are wasting their time buying this stock ...it's at fair value. No need to buy anymore. Do you think that they might see things a little differntly? Geeze, I thought they might be a little closer to what's cooking.

To: gbh who wrote (3860)	9/28/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: Doughboy	Respond to of 12623

Gary, I was not attempting to endorse his viewpoint; I'm just trying to share any information I find. Hence, "FWIW." As for valuation, I know that I posted a ballpark guess of earnings of .75 in '99, (and I've been unable to support even that), so I'm not going to dispute your pessimistic view. But there is an information vacuum right now; earnings estimates are all over the place; rumors are flying; a merger is a possibility. The perspective I come from is that Ciena has lost two things, a large, anticipated AT&T contract and a merger related expenses. 1999 Earnings have come down from 1.75 to 1.00 and you believe below .50. Even at the .39 cent level, I think the 15 dollar valuation is justified, and there's only upside from there. Therefore, I think this is a buy where is right now, with a limited, temporary volatility risk. Doughboy.