To: Bill Harmond who wrote (14000 ) 9/30/1998 9:30:00 PM From: Sonki Respond to of 27307
look at the mean esitmates for YahOO. should exceed by a mile..from brifing... YAHOO! INC (YHOO) 127 15/16 -3 9/16. What are the chances that Yahoo! will miss its quarter? Most would probably agree that the odds are quite slim. We would put the chance at about zero. Analyst Amenability: This is a company that is growing revenues at more than 150% per year, yet quarterly earnings projections never seem to vary by more than 2 cents-a-share. Illustration: For the quarter ending today and to be reported after-the-close of trading October 7, the mean estimate calls for Yahoo! to earn $0.09 a share. The range, however, is an astonishingly narrow $0.09 to $0.10 (which means a low estimate $0.09 and a high estimate of $0.10). Such an attenuated range would not be unusual for a company covered by only three or four analysts -- but one followed by more than a dozen? Always Beats By a Mile: Given that the company has absolutely obliterated mean estimates each quarter as far back as we can remember, the tight range seems that much more unusual. Yahoo! has exceeded published estimates by an average of 189% over the past five quarters (433%, 300%, 54%, 100% and 60%). Why the Kid Gloves?: Could you fathom the effect on Internet valuations a Yahoo! earnings shortfall would cause? With the stock currently trading at 278 times 1999 estimated earnings and 104 times trailing revenues, analysts can't afford to risk an earnings shortfall. Put in Perspective: If Yahoo! shares were to lose 75% or their value, which would mean shedding about $9 billion in market-cap, the stock would still trade at a premium to number-two search engine Excite Inc. Whisper Number: Since traders know that Yahoo! will not only meet estimates this quarter, but exceed them, the question on everyone's mind is: By how much? Mean Low High # of Analysts Surveyed 4th Qtr Estimate $0.11 $0.11 $0.10 13 Fiscal 1998 Estimate $0.32 $0.30 $0.33 16 Fiscal 1999 Estimate $0.46 $0.48 $0.43 16 *Estimates furnished by Zacks