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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (29249)	9/28/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Skipperr	Respond to of 94695

Terry - Regarding your: --------- Now if you or I tried to use that same strategy, odds are that we wouldn't be able to come up with enough capital to double the bet in a matter of a few days (I've done the math). This strategy that you're planning on using looks very similar. It can work- but you can't have one of those really long losing streaks, or your capital will run dry. ------------------------------- 1) I don't double the bet each time. I break the quantity of investable cash down in small amounts per unit, and create more units. As a result, I do use more units as the market gets lower, but not twice as many. 2) I set the scale so that what I believe is the lowest reasonable level has the greatest number of units bet. That scale has fairly wide divisions. 3) I am prepared to hedge with S&P futures options if the market gets to a certain predetermined level.....or,another alternative, simply use a stop. 4) When the market goes up, I will take profits at a certain level, but maybe not liquidate all, I decide then, - not unlike A.I.M. 5) After 4) I re-evaluate,and start again. I have a process that I'm comfortable following for each of the above-mentioned items. This is my own strategy. Best regards, Skipperr

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (29249)	9/28/1998 8:53:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

RE: Here's how: They would play a game that was fairly even odds like blackjack or roulette, and placed a small bet. If they won, they keep the winnings, and make the same small bet again. If they lost, they would double the bet. They would keep doubling the bet until they won (these guys had suitcases full of money). The odds of them hitting a losing streak long enough to deplete their resources were quite small, and they basically cleaned out the house. Now if you or I tried to use that same strategy, odds are that we wouldn't be able to come up with enough capital to double the bet in a matter of a few days (I've done the math) Terry, With all respect, you may have done the math, but may not have played the game. First, if you do use a double up strategy, sooner or later you WILL get nailed. Second, Casinos use house limits for bets at the tables. A high limit game of say 10 grand per bet would be great for a while if you were betting 100 buck chips and could double lose. But sooner or later you would hit your wittle head on the ceiling. Bet 1-- 100 Bet 2-- 200 Bet 3-- 400 Bet 4-- 800 Bet 5-- 1600 Bet 6-- 3200 Bet 7-- 6400 Bet 8-- 10,000 (limit) Can you lose 8 bets in a row? Can you lose 20 bets in a row? I saw it happen once. As applied to the stock market I'm not sure what the results would be since (one) you have the time factor. You are in control of the timing of your buys and sells, and (two) you have a historic upward bias in prices. Regardless, I wish you good luck. B.