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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (29268)	9/29/1998 8:17:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim, >>>>> I got a "SELL" signal for NASDAQ 100 Index today from my trading system. Do you have CLASS SELL signal from your TECHNICALS? <<<<<< Reply # of 54204 INDEX UPDATE --------------------- With the intraday weakness yesterday, and the uncertainty of todays FOMC meeting many the bearish tones is arising, and the BULLS are not as vocal. I just want to make sense of this volitile market and try to keep as much noise out of my analysis. I am now taking a linear approach by simply watching the support lines or resistance lines break to the downside or upside. As of yesterdays close, surprisingly, my SHORT-TERM TECHNICALS were only around 80, which is only borderline overbought, however I noticed on an intraday basis when the DOW was at its highs that the reading was approaching 85-90 range which is a CLASS SELL(CLASS 2 -intraday). That means that the reversal to the downside already started at yesterday's highs or that we can still move up more. Since the overall market, especially the NAZ, closed substantially off their highs it actually turn my short-technicals down, but keep in mind that the they are now around 80 which means that if the news from the FOMC meeting is viewed by the street as good news we could see a small rally that could last no more than 1-2 days, before my technicals get back to the extremes(CLASS 1). Please keep in mind that per my short-term technicals the downside potential is MUCH GREATER than the upside potential. So to recap, we could head down today or move up 1-2 days(but with limited upside potential). It appears that the FOMC results will give us the direction. Regardless, we will be heading down soon and the next question is how much. As per my previous posts, it appears that the DOW is in a well defined RISING WEDGE with the upside and downsidle limits at 8200-8250 (upside) and 7900(downside). Since it is a RISING WEDGE, which is a bearish formation, the probability is that the upside limits will hold and the downside limits will break. If 7900 breaks the next key support area is around 7700, then the crucial support at 7500. A break of 7700 will be bad for the market, but a break of 7500 even worse As indicated in the past a break of 7500 will imply a break of 7400, whether immediately or in later cycles. Until we break 7500 I am still holding my position of trading range. As for the upside, if we break 8350 then that would be the first strong hint that the long-term trend is reversing to the upside, but would stilll require alot of confirmation. With the negativity starting to build I am still holding my position of a RANGE TRADING TREND, and not untill 8350 is broken to the upside or 7500 broken to the downside will I consider changing my position. seeya