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To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (18631)	9/28/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: Andrew Danielson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

Low volume Oh, and responding to those who complain about AAPL's low volume: Comparing recent volume to how it was in late August or the beginning of this month is truly comparing apples and oranges. Few if any stocks are trading at volumes as high as they were during the market turmoil. Instead, look at AAPL volume in the stabilizing days prior to the run-up to 38 (pre-earnings run-up). That volume was much LOWER than it has been the past week. Then look at the volume in the quiet days before the run-up to 43. Again, low volume, about comparable to what we've seen the past few days (2 million, 3 million, rarely a 4 million day) If this were 2 days before earnings, I might be concerned. As it is, we've still got 12 trading days before earnings release. I'm personally ecstatic about AAPL's recent performance. If there would be a time for AAPL's stock to flounder, it would be now. Because it's certainly not going to be the next few weeks, as we get closer and closer to earnings. I made the original prediction that we would not see 43 again until after earnings. Now I'm not so sure. Andrew

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (18631)	9/28/1998 10:43:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Respond to of 213182

<<Some industry analysts are in charge of researching a dozen or more stocks, leaving little time for any one individual company. They might have better sources of information, but I can PROMISE you that I spend more time analyzing, reading about, and tracking AAPL than any of its analysts.>> Well, actually most of analysts are in charge of 50+ tech companies, in which AAPL is only one of them and it is not big enough like CPQ or DELL to attract them during this period of quiet time. They only make waves during the report period. Unfortunately, they really barely care about intermediate companies like AAPL. In the period of window-dressing near the quarter end, I think they more or less buy some good stocks from mid-size companies with excellent net prediction. AAPL may get some attention from its excellent iMac sales and hence we never know when they will step in in the next couple of days before the quarter ends. If you look at large stock funds, they majorly picked identical stocks and mostly ignored the real good ones with less market values. I think that's the implication of retirement plans. They really don't need to search hard to find the good ones because if each large stock fund placed bets on the same stocks, then those stocks will be inflated no matter how good/bad they are and the money managers still can claim victories in their picks. Phil

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (18631)	9/29/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

However, suddenly suggesting that analysts should be leading indicators for AAPL, not trailing, is rather humorous. Suggesting the reverse is equally humorous. As I said, analysts have earlier access to merger rumours and studies from PCData/Dataquest reporting nationwide sales. If a quarter is profitable because of great cost-cutting, analysts have not many ways of knowing this in advance, and thus they trail. If a quarter is profitable because of great retail sales they have the contacts to know that in advance. I know it is fashionable to poh-poh analysts in online forums, but assuming they are plain trailing drones is wrong. They were off by 83.33% in Q1, 137.5% in Q2, and 52% in Q3. See my comments above regarding external vs internal factors in profitability. Why do analysts still forecast .48 for this quarter? Oh, I'm not talking of forecasts. I had in mind something like Fidelity, which rather than giving better and improved recommendations, they went and bought out over 10% of the shares. Trading patterns suggest that mutual funds were not taking large positions last week.