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Technology Stocks : INPR - Inprise to Borland (BORL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Miller who wrote (1290)	9/28/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Lewis Edinburg	Respond to of 5102

Any number over $50m will be positive, but my own bet is still around the $48m mark I would go even farther and say that any number under $50M would be a big negative. They've been stuck at this level and even adding in sales from VSGN didn't bring them over $50M. Also, remember the big sales that were about to close at the end of last quarter. I would look for something closer to $55M this quarter to be a positive sign. We've heard the stories and explanations from Inprise in the past why the turnaround has taken more than originally portrayed. Now it's time for them to perform. My guess (hope) is that this will have been a good quarter.

To: David Miller who wrote (1290)	9/28/1998 11:16:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5102

David: Now to have to put the Guessing Hat on <g>. First off I agree if INPR hits anything over $50 million it will be a good psychological boost. My guess is we come in a shade under 50 - though it is admittedly tough to be precise here. I suspect the really good quarter will be the December quarter (revenues above 50 million by then - maybe 52-53 hopefully - that would make it 8 quarters of revenue growth - though with VSGN there is a bit of cheating here. I saw that BEAS bought WebLogic today after they said a few months ago that the Applicaton Server was a rip off and that only "suckers" would buy it. Go figure <g>). Issues: (1) The key problem for last q's slower revenue growth was the slowdown in Japan - about $3 million in revenue went poof. I doubt very much that that $3 million could be recovered this q since Japan is still in a funk. If lucky maybe INPR can get 0.5 million more here. (2) Del did mention several large deals not closing at the end of last quarter that presumably have closed this quarter. (This is where I am hoping we have some upside surprise. Normally I would have agreed with your $48 mil. but perhaps some of last quarter's revenue got pushed into this q.) (3) JBuilder 2 C/S has had a full q. Delphi 4 was released. Both should be beneficial. Suspect BCB revenue fell off. (4) Suspect Visibroker doing well and database & Entera doing alright. (4) Offsetting any positives would be the usual European summer malaise. (5) Presumably we will start seeing some more services revenue cp. to Q2. (6) In the background there will be the Y2000 issue and all the ugly negatives that brings - I don't think it is a major issue yet and may not become a major issue at all for INPR because of the type of market it is serving. Overall: My sense is we get something north of 48 and under 50. Maybe I'll go with 49.5 million just to be difficult! [I think INPR is comfortable with 0.05 for earnings. Because of the funny taxes, funny diluted share count (I'll guess around 57 million) tough to say how much revenue would be needed to produce 0.05 though at least 49 may be necessary to pull it off. I really think they need more than 48 to produce 0.05 considering they did 0.03 with 46.5 last quarter. With 57 million shares diluted that means to get the extra 0.02 they need about $1 million net and to produce $1 million net income they may need as much as $3-$4 million in revenues off the current base. That's why I think 46.5 + 3 or 49.5 is necessary.] If over $50 million (which likely would mean beating the earnings estimate) I say we gap up. Hopefully it will be over $50 million - certainly would be nice. But I don't think expectations are high (thankfully - I'd rather have lowered expectations than inflated unrealistic ones...) (mid 30's in 2001) - you knew that was coming <g>