Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (29303)	9/29/1998 12:50:00 PM
From: Jay8088	Respond to of 94695

In Elliott wave terms, the last couple of days can be read as ongoing wave 2 complex correction resolving itself on a rising triangle. the Fed rate cut may mark the beginning of the wave 3 down. Comparing with the 1929 chart even though wave 1 and especially the wave 2 correction took much longer, such 'time multiplier' may not apply to rest of the decline. In 1987, we saw a faster wave 3 in a similar situation. I am hopeful that the wave 3 would be hard down and complete itself by mid-October. Wave 5 could be the total washout sell-off in late October.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (29303)	9/30/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 94695

David, 1 of 1 of 3 should break 492 (485?), 2 of 1 of 3 correct to the broken up trend line around 495, 3 of 3 of 3 will test the 9/1 low (465-470) and 5 of 1 of 3 will set a new low. But since the EW read was so confusing, I'm afraid that the odds are against the classic wave count. ATG

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (29303)	10/1/1998 6:08:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Yesterday's drop had the smell of a 3 wave- A continuous drive forward, unlike the 1 which smells of hasitation and the 5 which is sharp and brief. >>If I'm right, the following scenario is a possible ST outlook- Today the OEX (currently at 512.9) should not exceed 516.5, and close flat to slightly up. Tomorrow the market will be down 1% before the announcement, try to rally just before the announcement, and start dropping fast a few minutes after the announcement (unless it's a 0.5% cut, which is not likely). On Wednesday we should check the line at 492 OEX, and break it on the same day or the next morning. So far, so good. IMO we will break the trendline this morning, and spend most of the day trying to recover. Could get as high as OEX 495, but no guarantee. This 1 of 1 of 3 duration looks like a day and a half, so half a day of correction is enough. Today looks like gap down, and not much weakening afterwards, then a 3-4 hrs. attempt of recovery, then a sell off in the last 1 1/2 hrs. that would start the 3 of 1 of 3 into Monday morning. My recommendation for the nimble traders is to close their shorts in the morning, around OEX 485, and reopen and even increase in the afternoon, around 491-4. Position traders should open a short today at the rebound around 12:30, and increase when the market starts down again. ATG