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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill who wrote (4276)	9/28/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: Johnathan C. Doe	Respond to of 9236

Bill; you are so silly about the price behavior. Why do you think it drops; I'm selling to take my trade profit. Do I get excited when I pick up thousands of dollars in a short period of time; you're damn right. I'm long, but I also trade around my long position with day-trades or short-duration trades as well. After all; AWRE is a great TRADING stock. You on the other hand; you just lurk and talk. You've never shorted this stock; NEVER. You talked about shorting it, but your just talk. You would never play these types of stocks long or short. You sure as hell wouldn't short this stock; especially with deployment so close and big names driving this stock behind the scenes. I'd love for this one to drop again. We know how this thing plays now.

To: Bill who wrote (4276)	9/28/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: Johnathan C. Doe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9236

I like how YOU get so excited every time this stock drops due to market conditions and then extrapolate that it means something about the fundamentals or business model of AWRE. Talk about silly! Look at the broader tech market today; VNTV, PRMS, ADCT; telco equipment took a hit. Great buying opportunities in VNTV and PRMS.

To: Bill who wrote (4276)	9/28/1998 11:53:00 PM
From: Norman Klein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

Bill, I read your analysis and appreciated your points. <<The company's shift to a licensing/royalty model will not generate enough revenue to support anything near their current market cap in the next three years, in my opinion. Start with a US market of 100 million households. Assume 40% PC penetration and 60% internet penetration on the PCs. Of these 24 million, assume the best case scenario for AWRE, that 40+% become ADSL connected in the next 3 years. Of the 10 million, assume AWRE technology captures 50% market share, or 5 million households. Systems companies, which make the DSLAMs and modems, are currently implementing DSL for $600 per line. Sourced technology components make up about 25% of this cost or $150. AWRE's revenue is a portion of each $150 component. For the sake of argument, let's assume it will average 20% or $30 over the next 3 years. $30 x 5 million connections = $150 million. Assume international ADSL penetration lags North American market by two years. By these calculations (and I admit to a vast set of unsubstantiated assumptions) the most AWRE would capture would be $150 m over 3 years. Now look at the reality. Cable modems are eating ADSL's lunch. There will not be 10 million ADSL households in 3 years, and at this juncture probably not even 3 million. There will not be business users, unless its soho, and even those will be better targets for 2B1Q line coding. And what are the chances AWRE gets 50% of this business when every one of the component companies is actively developing alternative technology in-house? So the $150 m over 3 years suddenly looks like $35 m over 3 years to me. Without the product revenue, they'll do $1-2 million/qtr licensing/royalty ramping to $5-6 million/qtr by 2000. That's if everything goes according to plan.>> Remember I told you, that I would keep a copy of your posting around and think about it. Anyway, the bottom line is that I don't believe your numbers and I don't believe that cable modems will capture a significant amount of the market. Cable modems needed to achieve an insurmountable lead before ADSL was implemented. They failed miserably and their window of opportunity has closed. The press is already writing that ADSL has pulled even with cable modems and the onslaught hasn't even begun. Aware is quickly achieving a stranglehold on the ADSL market with G.Lite. They have won the ADSL software war and no other company is going to be able to perform an end-around on them. Soon you will not able to purchase a pre-configured PC that doesn't include Aware software. With the Siemens deal and their prior deal with Phillips, they are quickly gobbling up the European market. With this strong market presence also comes the leverage to influence future standards. Also I have decided that the Aware management was smart to dump everything but the software IP. This is the lesson that other hardware manufacturers never seem to understand (look at Apple or Sun). They were smart to concentrate on their strength and not fall into the high margin hardware trap, which has caused so many other tech companies to mortgage their future by holding onto an inflexible legacy hardware sales strategy. Aware is an extremely valuable company, even if they don't immediately manage to generate large amounts of income. They can leverage their influence in future more higher margin areas (VDSL). They will always be an extremely attractive takeover candidate. I won't be surprised if Lucent doesn't make them their first acquistion. This is the major reason that I don't have the stomach to short Aware (even when it is sitting there looking ripe at 16). Because I still remember that TI was willing to pay $20/share for Amati and I believe that Aware is much more valuable today than Amati ever was. As a result, I have generally been a long and have limited my stock playing to the following strategy "buy below 10 and sell above 15". Certainly haven't made as much profit as either you or JD

To: Bill who wrote (4276)	9/29/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: Scrapps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

Well, I see three posts have been posted in reply already Bill. Two are more useless clutter...I won't say which two. However, Norman has some good points in his post. I believe I responded to your royalty based revenue post sometime back...when you first posted it. It is one way to look at the value of AWRE; I just don't agree with it completely. As expressed by others, I feel some value AWRE has is it's DMT and what it can do if owned outright by a larger company. The potential value could be huge. Excuse me for saying so, but, I see your numbers as WAGS based on assumed estimates, with little relationship to both ends of the connection. If you were right, the share price would relate to your analysis. I also see you attempting to equate it to both long term investing and short term trading. Also if you follow those previously mentioned posts, the writer contradicts herself consistently over the long run for sake of argument. I've attempted both avenues with her, and find it yields nothing of value.