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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James A. Venooker who wrote (54804)	9/29/1998 1:35:00 AM
From: Pat Hughes	Respond to of 61433

James, I originally bought Ascend in July of 97' for apx. 55.00, because it had plunged from 80.00 following the Cascade merger and I figured it would bounce right back. Then Mory was overly optimistic about last summers earnings ....but did not deliver. The Stock plunged further. Then there were problems with the deployment of new products, (some BS - some true), the delay in the 56k Standard, the MAX TNT burning up, etc, etc. As you know, the stock went into a free-fall. I was forced to take a good hard look at the company and the industry. With the help of this thread and others, I figured Ascend had a great future. I averaged all the way down to 22 3/8. When Mory brought in Mike Ashbey as CFO, and started to deliver results which were right in line with Ashbeys projections, I felt that Ascend was finally getting its house in order. They have been delivering ever since. I believe we are having a great quarter. (There were some big contracts announced at the beginning of the year that did not start shipping until this quarter.) I figured I would hold my heavily margined position until this Lucent thing played out. But now, I think that Ascend would do much better on its own. At least for the next few years. My feeling is that the market for this networking gear is just too big. A relatively small, (but not too small) company like Ascend can grow much faster than a Lucent in an environment like this. They have the installed equipment base and if they can get a small bit of the estimated $650,000,000,000.00 (thats six-hundred and fifty billion!) telecom equipment market in the next two years they are going to zoom. On the other hand, if there is a buy-out, I plan to hold my new Lucent stock. Once the initial dust settles, I believe the street will look favorably on the deal and we should do just fine. Eventually, I will have to clear up that margin thing. Good Luck to All, Pat Hughes

To: James A. Venooker who wrote (54804)	9/29/1998 8:20:00 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

>If we get the 50 basis points big if isn't it ? What if the fed stays put? or eases 25 points ? WHAT THEN ? The market would be looking for bad news, and there is plenty out there; how many guys of the like of LTCM are going to go bust ? How about Japan ? the major fear some 10-12 months ago was that they would repatriate their dollar investments if the Nikkei had been as low as 14000; where is the Nikkei now ? Not to talk about South America of course ... How about political stability with Europe drifting away to a communist-like era and the US still facing the impeachment question. All in all it looks like the run up to 8100 is (was) really a dead cat bounce and the potential downward can be awesome.