Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Alliance Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Norrin Radd who wrote (4052)	9/29/1998 6:30:00 AM
From: charles j. aaron	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9582

Tom, I agree but it appears we have a lot of resistance trying to break the 2 13/16 area. Earnings are scheduled to be reported 10/20/98 after the bell. We have not heard any earnings warning yet but I expect to hear one soon. It may be an advantage to take profits today during MU's run up based on their better earnings report. I will watch the action early and probably make the decision to sell at 2 3/4 if I can. I think we will be able to buy it back cheaper again around the 2 1/4 -3/8 area soon. I would be very surprised if it didn't drop back to this area again. Good trading to all. Chuck.

To: Norrin Radd who wrote (4052)	9/29/1998 10:55:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9582

European Executive Expects 5%-8% Recovery In Chip Market PARIS -(Dow Jones)- The chief economist for Franco-Italian semiconductor maker STMicroelectronics NV Tuesday forecast a recovery for the chip market in 1999, but his numbers fell short of the bullish projections made Monday by an American research firm. STM's Jean-Philippe Dauvin expects the chip market for 1998 to fall 8.0% to 10% from its performance in 1997. For 1999, Dauvin estimated market growth at 5.0% to 8.0%. On Monday, U.S. research firm Dataquest Inc. estimated the world-wide semiconductor market would grow by 11.8% in 1999, with revenue of $155 billion. "I don't think 12% is out of the scope (of possibility), but I think we should be more around 5.0% to 8.0% growth" for 1999, Dauvin said. He added that Dataquest's estimate of a 6.0% market decline in 1998 was too optimistic, since it implies a strong rebound in fourth-quarter sales. "I think the Dataquest outlook for the fourth quarter is a bit rich," he said. The chip sector has been plagued by oversupply caused by lower-than-expected demand for personal computers and the Asian financial crisis, among other factors. Industry watchers have been trying to figure out when things might again begin to pick up. As an industry, "we built too much capacity" starting in 1994 and 1995, said Dauvin, who also chairs the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group. "Then came the Asian issue, which is accelerating the purging of the system, but it is a very bitter pill which could last another one, two or three quarters." However, Dauvin said he felt that "in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter, we are near the bottom of the cycle" for the market. He said reduced capital expenditure by semiconductor companies, the growth of the sub-$1,000 category for personal computers, which has spread to Europe, and the closures of some production facilities all augured well for 1999. In fact, Dauvin said he expects there to be significant capacity shortage in a couple of years. Discussing reduced capital investment and production decreases, he said, "I think there will an overreaction as great as the reaction of the last two years," which led to too much capacity. Dauvin repeated his long-held assertion that there are good fundamental reasons to expect growth in the semiconductor market because of the ever-progressing technology advances and price declines.