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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (1242)	9/29/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk: Re " Only a bit. What is important is buying in whole hog at DJIA 8650 and not having dry powder at DJIA 7400. Truman left on this note. Compared to all the chest thumping and bad news bear thumping BB does, I think he needs to address his model failure more." The inference in your statement is that Truman left because Brinker did not pinpoint the correction. In order to be fair to Truman, we should let him speak for himself. I saw nothing in his final post to suggest this was the reason for Truman's departure. I think Brinker did address the model's failure on a number of occasions. I am not sure what else you had in mind. Maybe you could give a more detailed explanation of what you are thinking about. Re: "Didn't he say before the pullback that his model does not distinguish between an intermediate term correction and a bear?" I do not recall this statement. He did say that if he got an intermediate sell signal he would be predisposed top go to cash as most bear markets are preceded by an intermediate correction. But he has treated this as a special correction -- a midterm, off presidential year correction and has decided that to go to cash would be a mistake. This, of course, is my read and a fair read in my opinion and it would be nice to hear from Brinker's mouth why he chose to stay with the market as opposed to going to cash. Re: "I believe the conclusion of his model, just I think it needs some adjustment and the audience needs more explaination of why it missed (yes Clinton, Russia and yaddayadda but if this sort of event can happen then BB needs to widen his definition of "correction" to keep the model valid)" I don't think you can adjust what is essentially a rational model the vagaries of the marketplace and the reaction of investors to those vagaries. If we move in this direction, we are essentially asking Brinker to create a crystal ball. Moreover, I am not sure how an expanded definition of a "correction" would apply here. As an "intermediate correction" of between 10% and 20%, it meets Brinker's definition so far.

To: Kirk © who wrote (1242)	9/29/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Lars	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk, >>> Only a bit. What is important is buying in whole hog at DJIA 8650 and not having dry powder at DJIA 7400. Truman left on this note. >>> I don't recall this being a reason for Truman's departure. >>> Compared to all the chest thumping and bad news bear thumping BB does, I think he needs to address his model failure more. >>> What areas do you think Bob should address? I thought he addressed the matter. I am wondering if people will doubt Bob when the model turns bearish. Do you think he can call the BEAR still? In addition, I recall that he has said that you are in a great position if you can call the top within 10%. Just curious on your thoughts.