Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : RECY Looking Good... A -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Tiemann who wrote (5910)	9/29/1998 1:16:00 PM
From: ed doell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7006

>>Can you separate the effect of lower interest rates from crony capitalism when analyzing Japan? << *** No, but that's worrisome here IMHO but it manifests itself in other forms. There are other worries here...particularly the fact that the asian situation hasn't really come here as yet IMHO. I believe RECY because it is a roll-up style of company is vulnerable to several factors which are presenting themselves like pages in a book. BTW making a new intra-day low is not a reason for optimism regarding RECY. Ed

To: Bruce Tiemann who wrote (5910)	9/29/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: stephen wall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7006

Bruce, If you look at the economies and demographics of Japan and the US, you will find two diverse scenarios. Japan is the only country in the industrialized world that did not have a post WWII baby boom. From "The Roaring 2000's" by Harry S. Dent,Jr,page 83: Japan's generation trends are very diffferent, due to WWII. Japan had a baby boom into WWII, but not afterward in the 1950's. Its generation cycle is directly counter to that of the US-out of phase by about 20 years. Japan had something like our conformist Bob Hope generation, which excelled at hierarchical organization and management, that peaked in its spending around 1989 to 1990. That is why Japan's stock marke collapsed, and its economy has been much weaker ever since. Generational spending trends wont turn up stronly for Japan until around 2008, and then they will be booming again when growth in the US turns down in 2009. Most of Europe was thrown off cycle by WWII, but not for as long a period of time as Japan.It took 5 to 8 years for the baby boom cycles to kick in. European countries did not have as strong a baby boom. Their birth rates per capita tend to be smaller, on average, than those of the US. ------------------------------------------------------------------- In other words, Japan can (and has)cut interest rates till the cows come home but the spending power, in aggregate, in the Japanese economy is just not there. From this week's Economist: "Public borrowing and spending, in true Keynsian fashion, have helped support demand, but they have been overwhelmed by the drop in private demand. In one stimulus package after another, the government has pumped what it claims is close to $600 billion into the economy since the Japanese bubble burst in 1991(though only about a third of this was genuinely new money). This, it hoped, would revive personal spending. Yet only in one year since 1991, in the house-building boom following the Kobe earthquake of 1995, has consumer spending grown by more than a meagre 1-2%." ------------------------------------------------------------------ Also, I think the average Japanese consumer faces a confidence problem. They have been jerked around so much by their government who could blame them if they dont spend in the face of announced tax cuts, only to be taken away at a later date? stephen