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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alski who wrote (21737)	9/30/1998 3:54:00 AM
From: Doug R	Respond to of 79230

Alski, et al, On an intuitive ("intuitive"...not a technical term??) level, it would seem that over the last couple weeks or so, "the market" has been positioning itself in what should be technically considered a very transparent mode. The "action" of the "market" on Tuesday can be seen as a microcosm of what has been occurring over the last year. Fed lowers rate and kneejerk shorting occurs on the supposedly less than anticipated 1/4% cut. Kneejerk shorting causes a bulge of selling...an artificial drop. No real selling follows on the heels of the initial kneejerk shorting. A rush to cover ensues and the DJIA goes from down 90 to up 40 very quickly. A sideways settling occurs. S&P up a tad and the DJIA and NASDAQ down a tad. BUT AHA!! Technically sound stocks give up no momentum. There is now emerging the group of market leaders. This group held fast. We're at the close of a telling move by the fed. We're at the close of a month. Weekly closes offer significant technical info. This weekend, a proper technical read should give very significant info. I can't wait. Greenspan's closing words in his last testimony before congress were a clear indication that "the wall of worry" was now (if not now, then was being engineered to be) properly positioned. He said that the key policy makers in charge of the global flow of trade and currency were on the cusp of getting a handle on the technologically induced rate of exchange and that even though there is a perceived upheaval within the system, a fix is positioned. He went on to say that the fix is not an overnight wonder. It will take time. It will involve a degree of uncertainty. Damn...sounds like he said, "The wall of worry is now properly positioned", to me. Therefore, as of the close tomorrow, I'll raise the S&P 500 stake in my 401K from 30% to 60% while putting the other 40% into a short term bond fund option based on the premise that the yield curve will trend into a resolution of its flatness by a run on short term US backed debt obligations in anticipation of further rate cuts while the long term (30 yr. bond) debt obligations begin a bout of profit taking. Doug R