Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (15726)	9/29/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

To Marginmike: As usual, no one rpt no one has the foggiest idea what "the market" will do, tomorrow, next week, next month or any short term time period. But as been the experience over decades, the long term trend of earnings and therefore (with huge swings) stock prices is up. And again, if anyone is foolish enough to place bets on "the market" in the short run, wish them well. The Q represents the sort of investment that should do well relative to the market. What more can you ask? Chaz

To: marginmike who wrote (15726)	9/30/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

<< I think Japan has stabilized>> From theStreet.com today: Things are looking rather frayed in Japan. The parade of companies announcing loan exposures to the failed Japan Leasing continues, and the market is worried that Nippon Landic and Nippon Enterprise Development -- like Japan Leasing, nonbank affiliates of the ailing Long Term Credit Bank -- will also go under. Tomorrow brings the tankan report, the quarterly read on business sentiment, and Japan's most important economic report. It's not expected to be good. And then there's Nomura. Moody's cut the brokerage's long-term debt rating to A3 from A1, and its short-term rating to Prime-2 from Prime-1. "The substantial losses reported in its U.S. real-estate business and proprietary trading are indicative of Nomura's risk profile and vulnerability to adverse market conditions," Moody's said. Bad news for Nomura, which shed 5.3%, and bad news for the Nikkei, which fell 415.04, or 3%, to a 12-year low of 13,406.39. A Merrill international stock analyst just said similar things in less detail on CNBC. There is a really deep recession/depression in parts of Asia. Japan is sinking into a steep credit crunch recession. As the banks further consolidate the credit crunch looks to get worse before it gets better, as the banks struggle to survive, and slowly rebuild their equity bases. Holding U.S. treasuries is safe. Extending or even rolling over loans to struggling Japanese businesses, except perhaps the Sony and Toyotas is not. Japanese banks have for years been rolling over loans that show little prospect of ever being repayed, originally extend as they were in the days of halcyon real estate prices, huge stock valuation, and enormously expanding trade (the late 80's). Now finally some of those loans are being marked down, and some not rolled over. Which means bad things for the real economy for a while. For years Japanese financial institutions have been very reluctant to extend new credit at home (the 90's). Now they are being forced to liquidate some of their loans, rather than rolling over. I don't like this. I am not temperamentally a bear. Didn't turn bearish until the very beginning of August. (Although I thought all this was coming some time before that. I just thought the summer rally would last a bit longer than it did.) I'm trying to be realistic. Doug