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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (18679)	9/29/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

<<Repeats the notion that analysts are expecting 400-600,000 iMacs shipping by end of year. But words from Mazzucchelli suggests he may have upgraded his estimates again. First, he estimated $400 million in iMac revenue for Q4 (he also predicted $1500 million total revenue). Then he says Apple might ship 450,000 iMacs in Q1. That adds up to almost 800,000 iMacs by year-end, higher than his most recent revised estimate. Incidentally, I find Lou's numbers rather questionable. By suggesting $400 of the $1500 million revenue as coming from the iMac, he is by extension implicating a huge decrease in sales of other Macs--a supposition that flies in the face of the market data out there suggesting a 20% increase in sales.>> I have noticed the discrepancy among his estimated figures after reading a similar article a couple of days ago. However, I respect his couragement on upgrading his estimates and his visions on Apple's future. I don't think he spent as much time as some of us here and hence I encourage him to do more homework before making a public statement so that it won't be too embarrassing when the results come out in about two weeks. Well, actually, on the other hand, few people will notice the difference between his words and the results besides a few who really spent time on this matter. Phil

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (18679)	9/29/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: Marc Newman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

Andrew, good post on the difference between bank stocks and tech stocks, re: analysts and guidance. The iMac 20% margin is not new and has been referenced in other articles. The $150 million in advertising expense is new and likely an error. It certainly hasn't been used up this quarter--in fact, I think the television advertising has been downright tame. I expect mega-advertising starting in November or so. One thing we can say is that Apple has been surprising us with higher-than-expected margins, so perhaps that trend will continue with the iMac. It's possible that analyst pessimism is due to manufacturing concerns. The iMac seems to have been produced in excellent volume and even PB and G3 backorders are looking better. Regards, Marc