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Politics : Clinton's Scandals: Is this corruption the worst ever? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (7389)	9/29/1998 9:24:00 PM
From: Trippi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13994

Michael -- In just about every mid-term election in American history the party that holds the Presidency loses seats in Congress. This has been particularly true in the mid-term election held after a President has been re-elected. Many thought that President Reagan might have been popular enough to avoid this seemingly chronic fact of our country's electoral history -- I'm not sure, but if memory serves me -- even Reagan lost something like 12 seats in the mid-term after his re-election in 1984. This fact is so cemented in the minds of most strategists and political historians -- that both parties build their strategies around it. Regardless of the current mess Clinton finds himself in -- historically speaking us (talking about me and maybe one other person on the thread) Democrats should lose between 10 to 15 House seats in November. Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg -- track house races and are considered non-biased by both parties. Earlier in the year -- prior to the scandal breaking -- both were estimating that Democratic losses in the House would be lower this year than usual -- and in fact felt there was an outside chance of actual Democratic gains in the 1 or 2 seat range (practically unheard of) -- though clearly not enough, in their view to win the House back. After the scandal broke -- both began to alter their estimates -- until some time in mid to late August both began to estimate that Republicans would win as many as 20 House seats in November. In recent days those estimates have begun to move towards the Democrats again -- from the polling I've seen -- my guess is its now back to the more normal 7 - 12 seat range. But there are still 5 weeks to the elections and obviously there could be a big swing in either direction. The momentum has clearly shifted though and prospects for Democrats increased dramatically in the last 3 to 4 days -- particularly over the week-end. My best guess is that momentum continues in the direction of the Democrats -- probably losing 3 to 4 seats but well below the historical average. What the spin will be on that -- I got no idea -- it boggles my mind that we could have that few seats go down given the Lewinsky scandal and the fact that its a mid-term election. But that's where things look to be headed today.