Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack of All Trades who wrote (29443)	9/30/1998 7:34:00 AM
From: Darrin Vernier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Sticking by my previous outlook, with two corrections. One, there WAS a rate cut, though smaller than most expected. Two, the Japanese fiscal bank 1/2 year end and subsequent reminder of accounting reality was NOT Sept. 28, but Sept. 30. That is actually good. It puts additional pressure on the anticipated pessimism point of today, Sept. 30. This was the outlook, posted Sept. 22. Two scenarios, going down for the count today, or down and then up, setting up a nice H&S to take us down Friday or Monday. Good trades to all. "What a setup. There is an old trading saw that says of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur "Buy the first and sell the second, or the other way around". We got a nice rally here off of the New Moon, the holiday (or those returning to the market from it) and the first day of autumn, a traditional Gann equinox sentiment shift point, as well as the lame rally excuse of a possible rate cut (Greenspan interpreted as usual to justify where the market was going anyway). Setting us up for what? Sell the second. September 28 is fiscal 1/2 year for Japanese banks, a point at which 1 trillion in bad loans will suddenly be remembered and "dealt" with once more, with possible implications for US banks, should they be "marked to market", also on a lunar phase. September 29, FOMC meeting and LACK of rate cut. September 30 is Yom Kippur (sell the second). Note that Yom Kippur marked the secondary high before the plunge in 1929 AND 1987. Nothing mystical in the lunar or holiday references, both simply address the framework of an alternative to the solar time divisions. Nothing guaranteed either, but this scenario is confined to a tight time range, avoiding the problem of time decay. Gann trading New Year coming on October 5, closest trading day to first full moon after the equinox. Happy New Year to all <g>." Darrin geocities.com