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To: donald sew who wrote (54269)	9/29/1998 11:01:00 PM
From: Linda Kaplan	Respond to of 58727

Don: I waited up for you, and it was worth it. :-) Linda

To: donald sew who wrote (54269)	9/30/1998 1:18:00 AM
From: Darth Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

For all you wedgie fans gold-eagle.com

To: donald sew who wrote (54269)	9/30/1998 7:49:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Thought you might have interest in the following, Don. I included the sender's name because I think he deserves the credit for the analysis. His "Fear Index" is not something he will describe, although he suggests ways to determine such an Index if you wish to create one for yourself. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ An interesting short-term situation has developed in the SP 500 December futures contract. Indications are for possibly extreme lower prices by Friday. Here's the analysis: The Fear Index reads greater than 99%. Historically, over the last year, the SP has experienced price drops ranging from 50 to 150 points within 4 days of high DFX readings. This indicator is 4 for 5 this year, so the odds are : 80% probability prices 50 to 150 points lower in the short-term. Counter-trend Tuesday's -- This effect is often seen in the SP. Tuesday's tend to reverse the short-term trend. Odds are : 56% probability lower close. Day 6 High/low effect -- The SP tends to trade from 6 day highs to 6 day lows. If we hit the highs of 3 days ago, expect to see some monster sell programs. On lower prices with no higher highs, expect a challenge of the most current 6 day low. Modified Taylor Method -- This indicator says today is a "Sell" day. If today's close is higher than it's open, and price touches the high of 3 days ago, then the odds will be 80% that Wendsday will be the "Sell" day. If the "sell" day is completed today, expect a short - term "short-sell" up day on Wendsday follwed by an ambivalent Thursday. Today is important to this method and the SP. Friday's action will tend to mimic today's action. Fuzzy Gaps -- This indicator uses fuzzy logic to locate logical gaps that may not be represented by price action Here is the statement, and the odds: If today's Open is greater than yesterday's close, and today's Open is less than yesterday's high then there is a 73% chance that prices will close lower than yesterday's close, and a 47% chance that prices will close lower than yesterday's Open. Walt Downs CIS Trading Cos.