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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lars who wrote (1270)	9/30/1998 1:32:00 AM
From: Alan Bell	Respond to of 15132

Asking these questions - selling at high PE and not selling because capital gains, etc - illustrates a fundamental misunderstanding of Bob's goals. Bob is primarily aiming his advice toward the less experienced investor and not toward the type of person who reads and posts to SI. It is amazing how many callers get through having listened to Moneytalk for only a few weeks. It is similarly amazing how many callers know that he was invested in New Asia and call and think he is still invested there - clearly they listen a only few times a year. While there are a core of "regular listeners", there are many more who are first-time or sporadic listeners. Yet this is the audience that Bob can do the most good toward - "teaching you to manage your money for the rest of your life." Bob will not provide advice that could possibly confuse this primary audience. If he were to say to get out at 8600 and back in at 8000, there are many people who wouldn't hear the advice to get back in and more that would not have the confidence to get back in until we were at new highs, if ever. So, I don't expect Bob to say sell unless his model clearly shows a bear market. And regular listeners need to listen very carefully - after all, in Apr-June, he really did tell us that we were at a PE ceiling, that everything would have to go precisely right to stay at those heights, that we should expect volatility, and looking forward the market could not do better than 8-10%, (just a little better than GNMAs.) -- Alan