To: Alex who wrote (20113 ) 9/30/1998 9:26:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116762
Canada's dollar weakens on rate cut, growth data 04:32 p.m Sep 30, 1998 Eastern By Masaru Sato TORONTO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The one-two punch of an interest rate cut and bearish growth data sent the Canadian dollar lower on Wednesday, throwing the nation's central bank back into the hot seat. The Canadian dollar wrapped up the session near the day's trading low with one dollar worth 65.3 U.S. cents, down from 66.2 U.S. cents 24 hours before. The currency extended overnight losses after Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday that Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.3 percent in July, after falling 0.1 percent in June, the fourth consecutive month of declines. When Canadian currency traders came to work in the morning, sentiment was already ''sell-Canada'' following Tuesday's move by the Bank of Canada to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and cut the key rate on its loans to commercial banks. But the Bank of Canada let it be known it is poised to counter any resurgence of speculative attacks on the currency in a ''more discretionary'' fashion. A bank official told Reuters on Wednesday that bank executives had told commercial bankers last week it had changed the way it intervenes in the currency market to help boost the stability of the dollar. ''From now on, the bank will intervene in a more discretionary manner, as it did in August, in order to increase the signalling impact and the effective of intervention,'' the bank told market participants. The bank's new tactics, which were employed in early August, are to step in at any level, in amounts as deemed appropriate at the time of intervention, instead of the previous method of waiting until the U.S. dollar moved 0.75 Canadian cents from the previous day's close, and selling or buying US$40-US$50 million at a time at intervals of 0.05 cents. Traders who had been hoping for a stable Canadian dollar were disappointed by the timing of Bank of Canada's 0.25-percentage point cut in Canada's bank rate to 5.75 percent, which came an hour after an identical cut in the U.S. Fed funds rate on Tuesday. ''The bank's having reacted right after the Fed was a tactical mistake. Had they waited to do it this morning after the (GDP) numbers, we could well be testing C$1.4990 (US$0.6671) right now,'' said a trader in Montreal After opening more than one Canadian cent weaker at C$1.5235 (US$0.6564) against the U.S. dollar today from the previous day's close here, the Canadian dollar slipped to a day's low (high for the U.S. dollar) of C$1.5320 (US$0.6527). If it had waited to cut rates, Canada's central bank could have projected an image as an independent agency that is concerned about the economic climate at home ''rather than being a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve,'' the trader said. Traders thought it would have been wise to delay a rate cut in Canada and take advantage of a wider gap in interest rates with the United States. Expectations of lower U.S. interest rates had pushed up the Canadian dollar because capital tends to shift to securities denominated in currencies that offer higher returns. ''Now we've got a bank rate cut that matched the Fed cut, but we've got signs of weak economy and the Bank of Canada is back in the same situation as it was before, where you can't really defend the currency with rate hikes but, on the other hand, can't go ahead of the Fed in terms of cutting,'' Daniel Kelly, director of financial markets at CIBC Wood Gundy, told Reuters Television. The Bank of Canada has started to reverse some of the credit tightening it had conducted from time to time to shore up the dollar for over a year. The bank last raised the bank rate by one full percentage point on August 27. In contrast to Canada's currency, its long-term government bonds have regained popularity among investors.
This trend has been helped by a safe-haven move to fixed-income securities from volatile and slumping equities. This time concern has moved to the health of global financial systems from jitters over inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy a few months ago. ''The market has shifted from inflation fears to heightened concerns over credit risks,'' said Jeffrey Cheah, financial market analyst at Standard & Poor's MMS. ''Basically it's a flight to quality that has become dominant on the Bank of Canada coupon curve. As long as the global financial environment is uncertain, you are going to see that continuing.'' Canadian Finance Minister Paul Martin, who insists Canada's economic fundamentals are strong despite the weak GDP data, is calling on other major industrial nations to lower interest rates and help spur global economic growth. ((Reuters Toronto newsroom (416) 941-8107, toronto.newsroom+reuters.com)) Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.